2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Notes: (a) Dependent on density of poultry popuplation, production system (intensive or extensive), weather conditions, presence of wild reservoirs and other natural risk factors. Also, veterinary preparedness (surveillance levels, early detection, application of movement controls and other control measures etc.) (b) Country classification based on A40 (Global Strategy for Progressive Control of HPAI), A42 (AI Control and Eradication: FAO proposal for a global programme) and current status (OIE, WAHID). As at Nov 2005, the strategy was focussed on 3 groups of countries: 1) H5N1 infected countries (SE Asia: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam; Mongolia, Kazakshtan, Russia, Turkey and Romania) 2) Non-infected at immediate risk countries - includes those free of infection after having stamped out HPAI (DPR Korea, Malaysia, and Rep of Korea) and those never infected (SE Asia: Brunei, Myanmar, Singapore and Philippines; S. Asia: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka) 3) Non-infected new countries at risk: includes the other regions of the world (c) Includes culling (value of culled animals and culling/disposal) and control costs - excludes 'other direct production' or 'consequential' losses. (d) Depends on period of non-activity during a moratorium on re-stocking Excludes upstream/downstream sectors (poultry feed, processors, vet medicines etc.) (e) Total net impact. Depends on impact of outbreak on consumer demand and price levels and proprotion of producers/production affected; some unaffected producers may actually gain from higher prices. Also, depends on the point of return to pre-outbreak levels after the end of the crisis - duration is therefore the total number of months with no/reduced activity. It is possible that some business will exit from the sector while others will expand (as has been the case in practice). Assumes, however, than in net macro-economic terms supply will resume at pre-outbreak levels. (f) Total net impact. Same assumptions apply as for domestic trade. Some countries may gain from increased exports (of poultry or substitute meats) and/or higher prices. (g) Costs to the economic sectors of tourism/travel only covered here. Other economic sectors (e.g. services) excluded. (h) Economic impact based on public health effects of a pandemic influenza. Source of baseline (global): US economic impact (A5). Range assumes a 15% to 35% attack rate. Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 3
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Disease: HPAI in '000 US$ in '000 US$ Poultry stock ('000 head) Poultry stock losses (%) Baseline Poultry value losses Culling/ Disposal costs Control costs Total impact Poultry stock losses (%) Poultry value losses Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Culling/ Disposal costs Control costs Total impact 2005 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg case study 1 (Asia) 243,000 13.50% 84,103 8,200 6,308 98,610 15% 91,125 10,935 7,290 109,350 avg cost per head 2.56 0.25 0.19 2.5 0.3 0.2 2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est. case study 2 (Africa) 140,000 2% 14,505 2,640 1,015 18,161 15% 126,000 21,000 8,400 155,400 avg cost per head 5.49 1.00 0.38 6 1 0.4 Direct production costs/losses: Global impact, annual (i) avg cost per head 4 0.7 0.3 scenario A (ii) 15% 4,271,540 747,519 320,365 5,339,425 scenario B (iii) 15% 4,898,934 857,313 367,420 6,123,668 scenario C (iv) 15% 7,763,260 1,358,571 582,245 9,704,075 Direct production costs/losses: Global impact, total (i) scenario A (ii) 8,543,080 1,495,039 640,731 10,678,850 scenario B (iii) 9,797,868 1,714,627 734,840 12,247,335 scenario C (iv) 15,526,520 2,717,141 1,164,489 19,408,151 Consequential on-farm losses: Global impact, annual (i) avg income loss per head 6 scenario A (ii) 15% 6,407,310 scenario B (iii) 15% 7,348,401 scenario C (iv) 15% 11,644,890 Consequential on-farm losses: Global impact, total (i) scenario A (ii) 12,814,619 scenario B (iii) 14,696,802 scenario C (iv) 23,289,781 Total direct impact including consequential on-farm losses, annual (i) scenario A (ii) 11,746,734 scenario B (iii) 13,472,069 scenario C (iv) 21,348,966 Total direct impact including consequential on-farm losses, total (i) scenario A (ii) 23,493,469 scenario B (iii) 26,944,137 scenario C (iv) 42,697,931 Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 4
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2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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