2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5
Disease: HPAI in '000 US$ in '000 US$
Poultry stock
('000 head)
Poultry stock
losses (%)
Baseline
Poultry value
losses
Culling/
Disposal costs
Control costs Total impact
Poultry stock
losses (%)
Poultry value
losses
Impact: scenario 1 (most likely)
Culling/
Disposal costs
Control
costs
Total impact
2005 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg 2004-05 avg
case study 1 (Asia) 243,000 13.50% 84,103 8,200 6,308 98,610 15% 91,125 10,935 7,290 109,350
avg cost per head 2.56 0.25 0.19 2.5 0.3 0.2
2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est. 2006 est.
case study 2 (Africa) 140,000 2% 14,505 2,640 1,015 18,161 15% 126,000 21,000 8,400 155,400
avg cost per head 5.49 1.00 0.38 6 1 0.4
Direct production costs/losses: Global impact, annual (i)
avg cost per head 4 0.7 0.3
scenario A (ii) 15% 4,271,540 747,519 320,365 5,339,425
scenario B (iii) 15% 4,898,934 857,313 367,420 6,123,668
scenario C (iv) 15% 7,763,260 1,358,571 582,245 9,704,075
Direct production costs/losses: Global impact, total (i)
scenario A (ii) 8,543,080 1,495,039 640,731 10,678,850
scenario B (iii) 9,797,868 1,714,627 734,840 12,247,335
scenario C (iv) 15,526,520 2,717,141 1,164,489 19,408,151
Consequential on-farm losses: Global impact, annual (i)
avg income loss per head 6
scenario A (ii) 15% 6,407,310
scenario B (iii) 15% 7,348,401
scenario C (iv) 15% 11,644,890
Consequential on-farm losses: Global impact, total (i)
scenario A (ii) 12,814,619
scenario B (iii) 14,696,802
scenario C (iv) 23,289,781
Total direct impact including consequential on-farm losses, annual (i)
scenario A (ii) 11,746,734
scenario B (iii) 13,472,069
scenario C (iv) 21,348,966
Total direct impact including consequential on-farm losses, total (i)
scenario A (ii) 23,493,469
scenario B (iii) 26,944,137
scenario C (iv) 42,697,931
Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 10