2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Overall the results clearly demonstrate that the potential costs of an HPAI outbreak are a multiple of the
investment required for effective prevention. This suggests that the potential benefit of improved
prevention is very substantially higher than the cost of the investment, depending on the underlying
scenarios and assumptions. If the effects of a human pandemic are added to the equation, then the
economic benefits – beyond avoiding the loss of human lives as such – by far outweigh the costs. Beyond
these benefits, there are clear implications in terms of poverty alleviation and food security as the producer
costs and losses of an outbreak are disproportionately felt by those most in need: the poorer rural
communities of the developing world.
These results have implications for policy-making. An important element of animal health prevention
policies is the control of risks at source, hence the advantages of improved prevention in exporting
developing countries accrue not just to them but also to importing developed countries. Apart from
providing solidarity as such in facing crises and assisting the developing world to come out of the poverty
deadlock, the potential benefits that can accrue to developed countries from improved disease prevention
and preparedness at source in developing countries is a major argument for the mobilisation of funding
from the international community. The nature of the potential costs and benefits also determines the
rationale and potential extent of involvement of public and private initiatives in mitigating the effects of
an outbreak. These issues are explored in Deliverables II and III.
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