2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Table 25 Estimated global impact: indirect costs, HPAI
Impact: scenario 1 (most likely)
Ripple: domestic
market (a)
Ripple: export
markets (a)
Spill-over:
tourism (b)
Wider
society (c)
Total impact
Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, annual (i) 5,279,017 3,774,984 72,000,000 311,150,000 392,204,001
711,200,000 792,254,001
Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, total (i) 10,558,034 7,549,968 144,000,000 622,300,000 784,408,002
1,422,400,00
0 1,584,508,002
(a) Total net impact on domestic and international markets: depends on impact of outbreak on consumer demand and price levels and proportion of
producers/production affected; unaffected producers/countries may actually gain from higher prices. Excludes other potential ripple effects, notably the
impact on agricultural input sectors, due to lack of evidence/data.
(b) Costs to the economic sectors of tourism/travel only covered here. Other potentially affected economic sectors (e.g. services) excluded, due to lack
of evidence/data.
(c) Economic impact based on the public health effects of a pandemic influenza. Excludes other potential impacts, such as environmental effects, due
to lack of evidence/data. Low value assumes 15% attack rate; high value assumes 35% attack rate.
(i) The 'global' impact is indicated per year and in total, depending on the assumptions for duration of the epidemic.
Source: “OIE Del1 global costs analysis.xls”, Agra CEAS Consulting.
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