2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs million for Social Mobilisation and Strategic Communication and US$ 6.9 million Implementation Support and Monitoring & Evaluation. The animal health component covers 6 areas and a detailed budget breakdown is presented in Table 17. Table 17 Nigeria: HPAI Control & Eradication (AH component of Integrated Plan, 2006-10) US$ million (a) 2006 2007 2008 Total A. Strengthening HPAI control programmes 2.69 2.89 1.01 6.59 B. Strengthening disease surveillance, diagnostic capacity and applied research 2.84 1.59 0.52 4.95 C. Strengthening veterinary quarantine services 1.78 2.33 1.03 5.14 D. Enhancing HPAI prevention and preparedness 0.77 0.86 0.08 1.72 E. Improving bio-security in poultry production 0.49 0.29 0.20 0.98 F. Compensation & economic recovery 6.67 2.06 1.08 9.82 TOTAL 15.25 10.03 3.92 29.20 (a) excludes contingencies Source: Nigeria WB GPAI/APL (A203) The 2006 ALIVE Africa needs assessment presented in Bamako in December (A258) provides estimates of the total animal health component for fighting AI in Nigeria at US$ 40 million over a 10 year period (global budget for Nigeria including all other components of AI prevention and control is US$ 84.3 over the same period). These estimates are largely in line with the current Nigerian WB APL project. Nigeria needs are some of the highest identified by the ALIVE assessment (Figure 5). 5.3.3. Costs of outbreaks According to data from the FDLPCS, as at mid October 2006, some 400,000 poultry died and 900,000 were culled (A169). Culling continues this year, with already some 20,000 poultry culled in week 3 in the NW of the country where fresh cases were detected in January EMPRES-ECTAD. The main control measures used were stamping out with compensation (vaccination was excluded). A government-funded (US$ 847,558 since 2003) compensation scheme was put in place in March 2006 compensating farmers at 30-50% of the market value (A236b) (further details on this scheme can be found in Deliverable 2). Some of the costs resulting from the AI outbreaks in Nigeria is provided in Table 18. On the whole, the total economic impact for Nigeria from the HPAI crisis, including direct and indirect losses, is estimated Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 124
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs by the UNDP Nigeria to have been at least N1 billion (US$7.9 million) (A293). Although a significant figure as such, this corresponds to 0.01% of the latest GDP estimates for 2006 ($115.6 billion 132 ). A recent IFPRI study uses a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the latest spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations to analyse the potential impact of AI in West Africa, using Nigeria as an example. The study finds that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4% of national chicken production. The indirect (ripple) effects of consumers' reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices, are generally found to be larger than the direct effect. It is estimated that, if the worst-case scenario occurred (AI spreads >20km along the two major flyways), Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21%, prices by 12% and the combined result could mean that poultry farmers would lose up to US$250 million of revenue (A98). In the best case scenario (AI confined in a narrow zone within the flyway), the total loss to farmers would be US$ 48-52 million. Table 18 Nigeria: selected direct and indirect impacts of AI outbreaks (a) Direct costs and losses Production losses Culling costs Re-stocking costs Consequential on-farm losses As at mid-June 2006, the HPAI outbreak caused a loss of approximately 890,000 birds through deaths and stamping out. At an average farm gate price of about N700 per bird, the farm gate value of the birds lost was about N 617 million (or US$ 4.8 million). These figures are based on official estimates, and are believed to under-estimate reality, because the actual poultry population wiped out in rural areas remains unknown (A293). Culling teams were organised on an ad hoc basis and the costs were estimated to reach about US$ 1.00 per bird, if the team culled 1,000 birds within a day (culling and disposal costs). (A7, A258). The cost of restoring the affected poultry units back to pre-outbreak levels is estimated at about N889 million (or $6.95 million). In addition, there was a 45% drop in the flock size of the non-affected farms, mainly because of lack of funds to feed the birds which forced many farmers to reduce flocks, and it is unclear whether these farms will recover. (A293) The UNDP rapid assessment survey revealed that 80% of workers in the affected farms and 45% of those working in non-affected farms have lost their jobs as a result of the HPAI outbreak. (A293) Indirect impact: ripple effects Poultry sales Egg and chicken sales declined by 80% within 2 weeks following the announcement of HPAI outbreaks in Nigeria in February 2006 (UNDP data and Nigerian Poultry Association – PAN). Up to 4 months after, the recovery rate was still below 50%. (A293) Feed industry Following the HPAI outbreaks in Nigeria in early 2006, poultry feed sales dropped by 82%, and only 43% recovery (to pre-outbreak levels) had been attained by May 2006. Even in non- 132 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimate for 2006 at market exchange rate. Exchange rate (av) N:US$: 127.4 Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 125
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