2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs eradication plan’s figures are totals over a 5 year period, and the ALIVE estimates are totals over a 10 year period, while the outbreak costs are quoted as annual amounts. It is also noted that comparisons have been made only between the public investment components and the total costs. Components of an effective prevention and control system covered by the private sector, notably investment on biosecurity which is normally covered by farmers, have not been taken into consideration here. The scale of this investment is considered to be similar to other smallholder countries with similar poultry farming and developing country features such as Vietnam, where these were estimated at min US$500-700. This type of investment is considered prohibitive for the smallholder sector. The comparison clearly points to the fact that the potential benefits that can accrue from improving prevention and control are worth several times the investment. It is noted, however, that this relies on the assumption that a certain investment would result in gains in productivity and export earnings. The extent to which this will occur will depend on the effective design and implementation of the investment, to ensure the effective control of the disease. A risk factor will be the re-appearance of the disease, as is often the case in practice. The above calculations do not take into account the incremental operational costs involved, which can be a significant part of the cost of strengthening VS. On the other hand, the investment in strengthening the control of a particular disease, e.g. HPAI, can have important spill-over benefits on the entire VS. As in the case of Vietnam, the conclusions drawn at macro-economic level have important implications at micro-level, for individual farmers and other business relying on the poultry sector, particularly in the poorer urban and rural parts of Nigeria. It is estimates that some 70% of poultry is kept in backyard and village farming. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 128
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Figure 14 Nigeria: comparison of prevention versus outbreak costs scenario outbreak: total direct costs per year (b) 2006 outbreak: total direct costs 2006e 2006 outbreak: total direct costs Oct.2006 ALIVE needs assessment: AH (10 years) WB AH (2006-10): establishing compensation / economic recovery WB AH (2006-10): veterinary quarantine WB AH (2006-10): disease surveillance WB AH (2006-10): total excl. outbreal control WB AH (2006-10): total incl. outbreal control National Preparedness plan (2006-07): total excl. outbreak control 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 US$ million Notes: WB control and eradication plan’s figures are totals over a 5 year period; ALIVE estimates are totals over a 10 year period; Outbreak costs are quoted as annual amounts; Incremental operational costs (a significant part of the total costs of strengthening VS) are excluded from these calculations, due to lack of data. Source: Agra CEAS Consulting, based on literature and own analysis Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 129
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