2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
in some SE Asian countries who moved into pig farming. In general, however, such losses have a longer
term impact on the sector’s restructuring as discussed in section 4.3.3 below.
There is also an effect on employment, which appears to be determined by the degree of
commercialisation and industrialisation in the sector and therefore the level of employment it generates.
For example, following the Asian HPAI crisis, countries whose poultry sectors are less industrialised like
Lao PDR and Cambodia had a small loss of jobs, compared to Indonesia which has a considerable share of
farms in commercial systems 1 and 2.
Another way of looking at the global direct costs and losses is through the poultry sector’s contribution to
the GDP. The WB has undertaken such analysis in the case of SE Asian countries, demonstrating that the
direct impact on the region could be 0.1-0.2% of the GDP depending on the importance of the poultry
sector in the economy (Table 7).
Table 7 Direct production costs and losses: selected examples
Country
Impact
Direct losses
Vietnam (a)
Thailand
Indonesia
Nigeria (a)
Uruguay
In the first HPAI outbreak in 2004, 58 out of 64 Provinces were affected, and 17% of the total
national poultry flock of 262 million birds (about 44 million) lost. The loss in terms of the value of
birds was estimated at VND 800 billion (assuming an average farm gate price for chicken of VND
20,000 before AI) or US$ 53 million. According to other sources the value of the birds lost is even
higher. In the second wave of outbreaks, the costs were smaller due to a less drastic approach to
culling in which clinically infected birds only were slaughtered, and because the disease spread less.
(A9, A16, A91, A204, A292) The central government budget allocated to AI compensation up to
June 2005 amounted to VND 268 billion (US$ 17.2 million) (A3).
After Vietnam, direct losses from HPAI were highest in Thailand: 29 million birds or 14.5% of the
poultry population (A76). In spring 2005, the government reported it had paid some $55.8 million to
farmers as compensation for the mass chicken culling ( 25.9 million birds were culled, A16)
In Indonesia, 15 out of 30 provinces were infected with HPAI and 17 million birds (15 million
layers and 2 million parent stock) died or were stamped out. The value of birds lost was between
US$16.2 and 32.4 million (A16). These estimates are based on a price range of typically US$ 1-2
per bird, subject to weight and type (broiler or layer). The Indonesian Poultry Information Centre
estimates the total direct losses of the broiler and layer breeders and producers at US$ 170.9 million.
These figures do not account for the loss incurred by village and backyard farmers for which no
accurate estimates of total losses are available. It is believed that the greatest loss was among
backyard village farmers, estimated at 30 million households keeping 200 million native chickens or
63% of total poultry population. (A16, A40, A91, A292)
The HPAI outbreak caused a loss of approximately 890,000 birds through deaths and stamping out
as at mid-June 2006 At an average farm gate price of about N700 per bird, the farm gate value of
the birds lost was about N 617 million (or US$ 4.8 million). These figures are based on official
estimates, and are believed to under-estimate reality, because the actual poultry population wiped
out in rural areas remains unknown (A293).
Following the 2001 FMD outbreak, the direct costs involved in the implementation of the initial
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