2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
4.3.3.2. Spill-over effects
Tourism and services appear to be the two other sectors that are most severely affected by disease
outbreaks. The extent to which this will have a significant macro-economic impact will depend on the
contribution of these sectors to the national economy. In countries where these two sectors make a major
contribution, as was the case for example with HPAI in parts of SE Asia, the impact can be devastating.
(A12).
In the United Kingdom, the adverse impact of FMD on tourism and leisure totalled US$49 billion because
of bans on access to rural areas, representing more than half the total cost of the disease (based on FAO,
2002 data). Similarly, indirect costs in Ireland, including spill-over effects, are estimated at 95% of the
total US$5 billion loss incurred in 4 months only (Table 6). Significant impacts for the tourism and
services sectors were also found in a 2002 Canadian simulation of the impact of a potential FMD outbreak
(A112).
It is noted that similar diversion effects to those evident in trade may take place in the case of tourism and
services. From studies looking at the effects on tourism in the UK during the 2001 FMD epidemic, there
appears to be significant transfer of lost regional tourism revenue to other regions' tourism (certain studies
argue that up to 75% transfers may have occurred, e.g. A249). It is plausible that such impacts may have
occurred between countries or even between regions.
4.3.3.3. Wider society
The most obvious economic losses of a potential human pandemic are a shrinking and less productive
workforce. Experts concede that, in the event of a pandemic, the losses could be as severe as ten times
greater than all the other losses combined.
According to the latest data by the WHO, by 3 February 2007 a total 271 human cases of H5N1 had been
reported, causing a total 165 deaths. This represents a case-fatality rate of 61%. Of concern to experts has
been the persistence of the disease and the growing number of cases/deaths since the first outbreak in 2003
(Figure 8).
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