2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
In the case of HPAI, similar factors enter into play in the fight against the disease. In particular, the
nature of the disease (for example, now acknowledged endemic in many parts of SE Asia), the state of
VS preparedness in each country, and the existing farming structures (e.g. geographically highly
dispersed poultry population) affect the needs and costs of establishing effective surveillance,
biosecurity and improving prevention and control in each country.
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Our analysis in this section leads us to the following conclusions:
Literature review: comparison of prevention to outbreak costs
From the reviewed literature, in relatively few cases the analysis on the benefits of improved
animal disease prevention and control can be defined as a full classical CBA. The majority
of the reviewed studies consider the most measurable types of benefit, notably trade impacts.
They also tend to focus on specific components of prevention and control systems, specific
diseases, countries (or even regions within countries), specific epidemiological conditions in
which prevention and control measures may be applied, specific types of benefit and specific
scenarios and assumptions under which the benefits may be derived.
In all the cases reviewed here (Table 10), such studies conclude that the significant benefits
that accrue from improved prevention and control measures outweigh the cost of
investment. For example:
• In Latin America, an investment on improvements to animal health of some additional
US$ 157 million per year over 15 years generates a Net Present Value of US$ 1.9 billion.
In Africa, an investment of Euro 14.7 to control CBPP could save Euro 30 million in
losses from morbidity/mortality, leading to a net benefit of Euro 15.4 million.
• In Asia (Philippines, Thailand), eradication programmes for FMD have been assessed to
provide benefits in terms of improved trade and market access that are several times
worth the investment (the extent of the benefit depending on the underlying
assumptions).
Results of this type of analysis depend heavily on the underlying scenarios/assumptions, and
the implication of this is that a) they need to be interpreted within the context in which they
have been generated; and b) comparison and extrapolations from individual case studies are
constrained and should be treated with caution.
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