2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs in some SE Asian countries who moved into pig farming. In general, however, such losses have a longer term impact on the sector’s restructuring as discussed in section 4.3.3 below. There is also an effect on employment, which appears to be determined by the degree of commercialisation and industrialisation in the sector and therefore the level of employment it generates. For example, following the Asian HPAI crisis, countries whose poultry sectors are less industrialised like Lao PDR and Cambodia had a small loss of jobs, compared to Indonesia which has a considerable share of farms in commercial systems 1 and 2. Another way of looking at the global direct costs and losses is through the poultry sector’s contribution to the GDP. The WB has undertaken such analysis in the case of SE Asian countries, demonstrating that the direct impact on the region could be 0.1-0.2% of the GDP depending on the importance of the poultry sector in the economy (Table 7). Table 7 Direct production costs and losses: selected examples Country Impact Direct losses Vietnam (a) Thailand Indonesia Nigeria (a) Uruguay In the first HPAI outbreak in 2004, 58 out of 64 Provinces were affected, and 17% of the total national poultry flock of 262 million birds (about 44 million) lost. The loss in terms of the value of birds was estimated at VND 800 billion (assuming an average farm gate price for chicken of VND 20,000 before AI) or US$ 53 million. According to other sources the value of the birds lost is even higher. In the second wave of outbreaks, the costs were smaller due to a less drastic approach to culling in which clinically infected birds only were slaughtered, and because the disease spread less. (A9, A16, A91, A204, A292) The central government budget allocated to AI compensation up to June 2005 amounted to VND 268 billion (US$ 17.2 million) (A3). After Vietnam, direct losses from HPAI were highest in Thailand: 29 million birds or 14.5% of the poultry population (A76). In spring 2005, the government reported it had paid some $55.8 million to farmers as compensation for the mass chicken culling ( 25.9 million birds were culled, A16) In Indonesia, 15 out of 30 provinces were infected with HPAI and 17 million birds (15 million layers and 2 million parent stock) died or were stamped out. The value of birds lost was between US$16.2 and 32.4 million (A16). These estimates are based on a price range of typically US$ 1-2 per bird, subject to weight and type (broiler or layer). The Indonesian Poultry Information Centre estimates the total direct losses of the broiler and layer breeders and producers at US$ 170.9 million. These figures do not account for the loss incurred by village and backyard farmers for which no accurate estimates of total losses are available. It is believed that the greatest loss was among backyard village farmers, estimated at 30 million households keeping 200 million native chickens or 63% of total poultry population. (A16, A40, A91, A292) The HPAI outbreak caused a loss of approximately 890,000 birds through deaths and stamping out as at mid-June 2006 At an average farm gate price of about N700 per bird, the farm gate value of the birds lost was about N 617 million (or US$ 4.8 million). These figures are based on official estimates, and are believed to under-estimate reality, because the actual poultry population wiped out in rural areas remains unknown (A293). Following the 2001 FMD outbreak, the direct costs involved in the implementation of the initial Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 72
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Country Impact sanitary containment measures, which included the disposal of 5,424 cattle, 1,511 sheep and 333 pigs, amounted to over US$2 million. The costs involved in the secondary round of containment measures, which included the costs of vaccinating cattle in the immediate vicinity of the affected areas and the costs of the nation-wide vaccination campaign covering the entire cattle herd that will follow, were estimated at US$18.2 million. (A259) Control costs Africa Vietnam (a) Nigeria (a) Given that in Africa, some 5% (around 66,000,000 poultry) of the total poultry population could be culled within three years if HPAI continues to spread at current rates, and estimated to cost about US$ 1 per bird (Alive estimates, A258), the total control costs of a pan-African outbreak could reach at least US$ 66 million (e.g. above figures exclude South Africa). In the case of the Vietnam HPAI outbreaks, it was estimated to cost about US$ 0.25 per bird to cull and dispose approximately 200 chickens per farm. Direct losses (value of birds plus culling costs) from the first wave of the outbreak in 2004 (when the culling operations were more extensive) were estimated to be over $200 million. (A7, A9, A91) In the case of the Nigeria HPAI outbreaks, culling teams were organised on an ad hoc basis and the costs were estimated to reach about US$ 1.00 per bird, if the team culled 1,000 birds within a day. (A7, A258). Consequential on-farm losses • Business interruption Vietnam (a) Nigeria (a) Asia Vétérinaires Sans Frontières (VSF) conducted a case study of a village in the highlands of North Vietnam which estimated that a smallholder lost between US$ 69 and US$ 108 from the HPAI outbreaks, including the value of lost birds, loss of an average 2.3 months with no activities, and loss of no income and consumption during the period of no activities. In Vietnam about 18% of the households earn less than US$1 per capita a day and 64% of the households less than US$2. (A76) The cost of restoring the affected poultry units back to their original level (i.e. before the HPAI outbreak) is estimated at about N889 million (or $6.95 million). In addition, there was a 45% drop in the flock size of the non-affected farms, mainly because of lack of funds to feed the birds (due to the drop in poultry sales) which forced many farmers to reduce flocks, and it is unclear whether these farms will recover. (A293) The size of the poultry sector in the national economies of the Asian region before the HPAI epidemic ranged from around 0.6% of GDP at the low end in countries like Vietnam and Thailand, to a high of a little over 2% in the Philippines, with most countries averaging a little over 1% of GDP. In an economy like Vietnam, where poultry output is down by around 15%, this part of economic loss is worth about 0.1% of GDP or about $45 million. If similar declines in poultry numbers were to occur in an economy like Indonesia where the poultry sector plays a somewhat larger part in the economy, these direct costs could amount to 0.2% of GDP. (A140, A140a) • On-farm employment Lao PDR Lao PDR and Cambodia poultry sectors resulted in a small loss of jobs (as low as 52 jobs in Lao Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 73
Page 1 and 2:
The World Organisation for Animal H
Page 3 and 4:
Expert Team Agra CEAS Consulting: M
Page 5 and 6:
Prevention and control of animal di
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36: Prevention and control of animal di
Page 85: Prevention and control of animal di
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Annexes Prevention and control of a
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Country Title Date Programme durati
Page 225 and 226:
Country Title Date Programme durati
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251:
show all

2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?