2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Instructions to users Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Objective: This spreadsheet has been developed to serve as a working tool for the estimation of the costs of HPAI outbreaks at a global, regional and individual country level under different scenarios and assumptions. The idea is that, as the epidemic occurence of HPAI is constantly changing, the scenarios and assumptions can ve varied to reflect more accurately the evolving reality. Similarly, the data on which the current spreadsheet is based can be adjusted as new data and evidence from other research comes to light. Scenarios and assumptions: The current scenarios are as follows: Scenario 1 (most likely scenario): assumes that, in the event of a disaese outbreak, the resulting impact will be between the low impact and high impact scenarios Scenario 2 (low impact) Scenario 3 (high impact) In addition, there are 3 scenarios on the geographical scale of the outbreak: Scenario A; Scenario B; Scenario C. These are based on the country classification of the "Global Strategy for Progressive Control of HPAI" (A40), and on the "AI Control and Eradication: FAO proposal for a global programme" (A42). Current country coverage has been adjusted to reflect the current status of the geographical presence of the disease (based on OIE/WAHID data). The variables on which the above scenarios depend are illustrated in the 'Assumptions outbreak costs' worksheet. Results: A differentiation is made between direct impacts and losses and indirect impacts. Results on the former are presented in the 'Direct outbreak costs' worksheet, for the latter in the 'Indirect outbreak costs' worksheet. The direct outbreak costs are given for OIE developing/transition countries only (scope of this project). The indirect impact is given for the world. The underlying assumption is that, this being a transboundary disease, the wider economic effects (in terms of trade loss, loss in other sectors such as travel/tourism and the wider costs of a pandemic) transcend throughout the world. Data sources/notes: All sources of data are indicated in the notes under each worksheet. The worksheets 'Vietnam HPAI' and 'Nigeria HPAI' contain more detailed data and calculations for the direct production costs and losses in these countries, based on our case studies. The worksheet 'global HPAI' contains more detailed data and calculations for the indirect costs and losses at a global level, based on our literature review. The worksheet 'pandemic effects' contains more detailed data and calculations for the pandemic effects. © Spreadsheet developed by Agra CEAS Consulting for the OIE. Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 1
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Disease: HPAI Baseline (Vietnam) ACTUAL Baseline (Nigeria) Baseline (global) Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) ASSUMPTIONS Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) Duration of impact (years) 2+ 1+ 2 1 3 Rate of disease spread (a) moderate slow rapid Coverage (countries) (b) scenario A scenario A scenario A scenario B scenario B scenario B scenario C scenario C scenario C Direct production costs/losses: ● Direct losses (c) % of birds culled 7-17% 2% 2% 15% 7% 25% average market value per head (US$) 2.56 5.49 global 4 4 4 Asia 2.5 2.5 2.5 rest of world 6 6 6 culling/disposal costs per head (US$) 0.25 1.00 global 0.7 0.7 0.7 Asia 0.3 0.3 0.3 rest of world 1 1 1 control costs per head (US$) 0.19 0.38 global 0.3 0.3 0.3 Asia 0.2 0.2 0.2 rest of world 0.4 0.4 0.4 ● Consequential on-farm losses (d) % of birds culled 7-17% 15% 7% 25% monthly income from activity (per head) (US$) 0.96 2.00 2.00 2.00 duration (number of months) 3 3 1 6 Indirect costs Ripple (e) ● Fall in domestic prices / demand (e) % rate of sales volume loss (per month) up to 50% 20% 10% 40% % rate of price fall (per month) up to 50% 20% 10% 40% duration (months) 3 3 1 6 ● Loss of exports / market access (f) % rate of trade volume loss (per month) 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% % rate of price fall (per month) 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 2.0% duration (months) 12 24 12 36 Spill-over (g) ● Fall in tourism / travel % rate of tourism income loss (per month) 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% duration (months) 12 12 6 24 Wider society (h) ● Economic impact (% fall in GDP) 15% attack rate 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 35% attach rate 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 3.0% Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 2
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2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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