2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Country
Impact
consumption of poultry meat (18% on average, with large country differences). Although three
quarters of this group did so only on a temporary basis, some 13% intended to cut down on
consumption permanently. (A190)
Trade impacts
Sales of poultry and eggs were reported in early 2006 to have fallen by 70% in Italy and by 20% in
France, following announcements of AI outbreaks in other parts of Europe/the world (A144). The
Italian farmers' association estimated that the industry was losing €6m a day, and that it had lost a
total of about €650m thus far.
Global
(Argentina
Uruguay)
Global
East
Africa
Brazil
Uruguay
Asia
(Thailand,
China)
In 2001, the severity and visibility of the FMD pandemic, combined with BSE concerns, led to
countries around the globe closing their borders to at least one-quarter of world beef trade. Trade
losses for Argentina and Uruguay were estimated at US$ 400 million and US$ 150 million
respectively. (A111d)
The results of a 2000 study quantifying the impact of BSE on world trade suggest that economies
affected by BSE notifications saw a decline of US$5.6 billion while unaffected economies saw an
increase of US$1.5 billion (in both cases, from hypothetical projections in designated products).
Thus, it may be concluded that import restrictions to control the spread of emergent BSE infection
had a significant effect on trade flows. The study also shows that economies unaffected by BSE
may have benefited from an increase in trade hence the loss to affected countries is not an actual
net loss to the global economy but a shift in trading patterns. (A6)
Following an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in East Africa which led to an export ban by Saudi
Arabia and other Gulf countries on livestock products from Ethiopia, the costs of the ban on
Ethiopia’s main exporting region (Somali) and their distribution among different types of
households, producers and traders are assessed using a CGE model. Results show that Somali’s
GDP is reduced by 36% as a consequence of the ban. In addition, poor and better off producers
experience total losses in value added of around 50% of their respective levels in a normal year.
Due to the FMD outbreak in October 2005, Brazilian beef exports in 2005 grew at only 16%, half
of the trade gains registered over the past five years. (A111d). According to latest data from the
Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture on exports of beef meat in relation to the number of FMD cases
during the 1990-2006 period, after the dramatic reduction in cases post 1998, exports increased
from US$ 0.5 billion (the average annual value of exports during the 1990-1998 period) to US$ 3.5
billion in 2006. During the same period (particularly in more recent years), investment in the fight
against diseases (both public and private funds) has increased significantly.
Uruguay beef exports more than doubled in volume (representing a 52% increase in value) after
the OIE declared Uruguay officially FMD-free without vaccination in 1996. Access to the US
market (which pays more than double the prices paid on the domestic market) provides Uruguay
with additional income of around US$ 20 million per year. According to analysts, access to
“Pacific Rim” markets would generate supplementary revenue of US$ 90 million per year. (A283)
Limitations on fresh/chilled/frozen products from HPAI-affected Asian exporters (in particular
Thailand and the People’s Republic of China) caused a decline in Asian exports from 1.8 million
tonnes in 2003 to less than 1 million tonnes in 2004, a loss of approximately US$ 1 billion of
export earnings for the region. (A111d)
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