2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
(a)
More extensive information on the costs/benefits for Argentina can be found in the case study
Source: compiled by Agra CEAS Consulting
Certain observations can be made on the results of the available studies.
1. Firstly, as discussed elsewhere, these results should be interpreted with caution due to the specificities
of the methodology, coverage and scenarios/assumptions on which these studies are based. It is
therefore important that results are always analysed in the context covered by the specific study. In all
cases (including the present study, as outlined in section 6), the estimates provided should best be seen
in relative terms, as orders of magnitude.
When, for example, estimating the benefits in terms of market access that can be achieved with
increased funding on veterinary services and control measures, it should be noted that results will
always depend not only on the volume of funds provided but also on the efficiency with which these
are applied.
2. Secondly, caution should be taken in extrapolating from the findings of a specific case study
country/ies to the regional/global level. This is not only because the various studies use specific
scenarios and assumptions, as discussed in the previous point, but also because they cover situations
(at an economic, policy, institutional, epidemiological level) which may be specific to the country/ies
under review.
This is the case both for FMD and HPAI, which both as diseases and in terms of potential economic
impacts present strong regional specificities.
For example, in the case of FMD in SE Asian countries, a number of factors influence the capacity of
each country to achieve control and eradication (A124, A182, A233). First, the feasibility of
effectively controlling and eradicating the disease varies considerably depending on whether the
disease is endemic (as is the case for most of SE Asia); the type of farming systems primarily affected
(village systems in Thailand/Laos, commercial system accounts for 2/3 of pig farmers in the
Philippines); and the risk of re-introduction (important movement corridors in Thailand/Laos, islands
in the Philippines). Secondly, the presence of a significant commercial livestock sector is a key
differentiating factor: the constant threat of FMD requires commercial producers to incur high costs
for preventive measures and likewise influences governments to invest in publicly funded FMD
control programmes in the small-scale and village sectors, while a strong commercial sector also
contributes pressure to develop export trade which becomes an important driving force for eradication.
These findings have clear implications for regional FMD control efforts: given the diversity in the
economic impacts of FMD and in national capacities for control of the disease, regional freedom in
South-East Asia is considered highly unlikely in the short to medium term 94 (A233). By contrast, in
the case of the South American region, FMD eradication is pursued as a regional objective, given the
strong regional relevance of the disease and the significant global export potential of the region as a
whole (discussed further in the case study on Argentina below).
94 According to the latest OIE Resolution No. XXVI of 26 May 2006, the only SE Asian countries recognised as
“FMD-free without vaccination” are Indonesia and Singapore, and zones of Malaysia and the Philippines.
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