2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Figure 6 Overall impact of HPAI outbreaks: selected examples US$ million 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1200 387 300 8 Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Nigeria Source: Table 6 The sections below provide an overview of how disease outbreak costs and losses are covered by the available literature, and discuss some of the key findings of the available research to date. Our analysis follows the typology of outbreak costs presented in Table 2, distinguishing between direct and indirect costs and losses. 4.3.2. Direct costs and losses A selection of examples of direct production costs and losses is presented in Table 7 and Figure 7. More detailed comments are provided by type of impact below. 4.3.2.1. Direct production losses On a global scale, it is estimated that within the past two years more than 250 million poultry have died or been culled as a result of avian influenza (FAO estimate, as at end of October 2006). In Africa, based on the experience of the outbreaks so far, it is estimated that 5% (around 66,000,000 poultry) of the total poultry population (South Africa not included) would be culled within 3 years (Alive estimates) (Table 7). Even though these figures are substantial, seen from the perspective of the global size of the sector the global poultry population dead/culled only accounts for less than 1% of the 52 billion birds slaughtered annually in the world. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 70
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs However, given the dependence on the poultry sector of poverty stricken households in the developing world and especially the least developed countries, the culling and high mortality of birds has a significant impact on their livelihoods 85 . This impact is compounded by the consequential on-farm losses and the broader indirect effects discussed below. It is noted that in a given production system, an inverse relationship appears to exist between production losses and control costs, in that the higher the treatment and control expenditure the lower the losses and vice versa. Moreover, this relationship between losses and expenditure is non-linear reflecting the nonlinear nature of the classical production function (A115). 4.3.2.2. Control costs This type of cost is rarely documented with data. Only in the case of FMD outbreaks in developed countries (e.g. UK), and the more recent HPAI outbreaks in both developed and developing countries, these costs were explored in depth. Given the data scarcity, any global estimates of the control costs available by literature usually draw on the above cases. For example, the African assessment of needs and gaps in the context of HPAI (A258) evaluates the operational cost of the culling team activities, disinfection of premises and disposal of dead birds taking into consideration the experience of two of the most documented cases: Vietnam and Nigeria (Table 7). 4.3.2.3. Other direct production losses Widely referred to as consequential on-farm losses, these depend on the period that the farmers stay out of production during and after the crisis is over. These types of losses are generally not well documented in the literature and therefore difficult to assess and quantify. In the case of HPAI, given that poultry restocking should normally take place only a minimum of 3-4 weeks after the premises have been cleaned and disinfected (following OIE and FAO recommendations but also as demonstrated in practice in the countries affected by HPAI – see for example A91), a month can be considered as the minimum disruption period. A distinction should be made between restocking in the village and backyard farming system, which appears to be an autonomous process, and restocking in commercial and industrial systems. Generally, the main problems that farms in the latter sector encounter in continuing with poultry raising are related to the high prices of inputs, difficulties in procuring day-old chicks and fear of resurgence of Avian Influenza. Evidence has shown that even without these problems, it takes a long time to re-stock to pre-outbreak levels. For example, with no constraints to restocking (i.e. assuming day-old chicks and other inputs are readily available) the time taken to complete restocking in Vietnam was estimated to be 12 months for the backyard system and 5 to 8 months for the industrial and commercial systems (A91). These losses can be mitigated if farmers can switch to alternative production, as was the case for example with certain farmers 85 It is noted that the impact of HPAI on small holders of poultry is not new, as these holders are accustomed to large losses through NCD. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 71
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