2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5
Disease: HPAI
in '000 US$
Poultry stock
('000 head)
GDP
('000 US$)
Baseline
Trade volume
(tonnes)
Tourism/travel
value ('000 US$)
Ripple: domestic
market (a)
Ripple: export
markets (b)
Impact: scenario 1 (most likely)
Spill-over: tourism
(c )
Wider society
(d)
Total impact
2005 2004-05 avg 2003-04 avg. 2004 est.
12,938,767 44,450,000,000 8,630,000 1,500,000,000
Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, annual (i)
Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, total (i)
5,279,017 3,774,984 72,000,000 311,150,000 392,204,001
711,200,000 792,254,001
10,558,034 7,549,968 144,000,000 622,300,000 784,408,002
1,422,400,000 1,584,508,002
Notes:
(a) Domestic sales loss = loss in monthly sales volume (% of poultry stock affected by crisis x lower price) + loss in monthly sales value (% of poultry stock not affected by crisis x price drop) x duration (months):
Ripple (domestic market): detailed calculations
poultry sold in dometic markets ('000 head): 2,587,753
poultry sales loss ('000 head): 517,551
poultry sales loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 931,591
rest of poultry sold in domestic markets ('000 head): 2,070,203
poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 828,081
Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 1,759,672
Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 5,279,017
(b) Exports loss = loss in monthly exports volume (% of exports affected by crisis x lower price) + loss in monthly sales value (% of exports not affected by crisis x price drop) x duration (months) :
Ripple (export markets): detailed calculations
poultry exports (tonnes): 8,630,000
poultry exports loss (tonnes): 43,150
poultry exports loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 52,319
rest of poultry exports (tonnes): 8,586,850
poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 104,973
Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 157,291
Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 3,774,984
(c) tourism value loss x duration (months)
(d) low value assumes 15% attack rate; high value assumes 35% attack rate
(i) Indicated per year and in total, depending on the assumptions for duration of the epidemic - see 'assumptions outbreak costs'
FOR ASSUMPTIONS SEE WORKSHEET 'Assumptions outbreak costs'
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