2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs On the other hand, three main benefits of improved prevention are most widely explored in the available literature. These are as follows: 1. Enhanced food security / poverty alleviation. This includes the benefits accrued from productivity improvements and generally improved production systems. 2. Improved market access 3. Savings in potential outbreak costs In terms of the first objective, it is important to note that an estimated 600 million poor people worldwide rely directly on livestock production for their livelihoods. Several parts of the developing world, most notably sub-Saharan Africa, are still below the recommended protein diet levels and only get a fraction of the daily livestock protein intake of industrialised countries. In addition, each year the population of developing countries grows by an estimated 72 million, with the highest growth rates in Africa and in Asia, adding to the demand for food products. Average annual per capita consumption of all meats in the developed world is thus projected to increase to 30 kg, which represents an increase by about a third on 1993 levels. Improved animal health not only guarantees food supplies but is also considered to be a major factor for productivity gains in the livestock sector. In terms of the second objective, trade in livestock and livestock products makes up approximately one sixth of global agricultural trade. Most of these exports (nearly 80%) currently come from the developed world. For example, the least developed countries are estimated to account for only less than 5% of total world meat exports by value. Within this overall picture only a few countries account for the bulk of exports: 90 % of exports of beef and poultry (70% for pork) come from 5 countries. This having been said, it is widely acknowledged in the available literature that big gains are possible for the developing countries from the removal of sanitary barriers now that post URAA tariff barriers have been reduced and that these opportunities are likely to expand if tariff barriers are further reduced in the ongoing WTO and bilateral negotiations. Within this evolving policy outlook, the improvement in SPS conditions for developing country exporters or potential exporters has become an issue of utmost importance (as well as being an obligation under the WTO SPS Agreement). Literature review This definitional work was followed by an extensive review of the literature on the costs of prevention and control including emergency preparedness, human resources, surveillance systems and vaccination. In this context the study comes to the following conclusions on the relevance of country preparedness to prevention and control costs: • The costs of improved prevention and control for the major TADs will depend inter alia on the current level of preparedness in the various countries; • Existing data from international surveys (OIE, UNSIC) and other literature suggest that there are considerable differences in approach and status quo between developing/transition countries, notably in terms of the overall state of Veterinary Services, preparation of prevention and control plans for specific diseases (e.g. HPAI), available and well-trained veterinary staff, epidemiosurveillance networks, border controls, diagnostic capacity, and vaccination; • In the context of countries’ international obligations within the overall framework for the prevention and control of major TADs, as defined by the OIE, the varying levels of preparedness Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 6
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs and prevention systems between countries indicate the need to define priorities and assess gaps on a country by country basis. In the case of vaccination the policy debate on the appropriateness and conditions for application of this method is currently on-going; • This has implications in terms of the budget required in each country to enable it to arrive to an optimal surveillance system. The literature review also indicates clearly that when a comparison of prevention versus outbreak costs is made, and it must be said that there is relatively little analysis which can be defined as a full classical cost benefit analysis, the majority of the studies reviewed studies conclude that the significant benefits that accrue from improved prevention and control measures outweigh the cost of investment. Thus for example, in Latin America investment in improvements to animal health of some additional US$ 157 million per year over 15 years generates a Net Present Value of US$ 1.9 billion. In Africa it has been estimated that an investment of Euro 14.7 to control CBPP could save Euro 30 million in losses from morbidity/mortality, leading to a net benefit of Euro 15.4 million and in Asia eradication programmes for FMD have been assessed to provide benefits in terms of improved trade and market access that are worth several times the investment. While specific results need to be treated with caution and clearly depend on what underlying assumptions are used the nature of the relationship between outbreak costs compared to the costs of prevention is indisputable and is validated by the four case studies which were undertaken. Case study results 2 Argentina: The FMD campaign undertaken in South America during 1999-2004 has demonstrated the value of regional action when the control of TADs of major economic importance to the region is being sought. It also demonstrates the significance of maintaining the investment when pockets of resistance remain which risk to erupt to full blown outbreaks in countries of the region. Some US$ 3.5 billion have been committed on the fight against FMD by South American countries during 1990-2004, which is considered to have contributed to an effective control of the disease during this period. Against this, in the space of only a year, the 2000/01 FMD outbreak in Argentina has resulted to losses in beef export revenue alone of US$ 439 million. Preliminary results of on-going cost-benefit analysis of improvements in Argentina’s and wider Latin American VS (OIE Regional Representation/CEMA) suggest that there are significant benefits in terms of both productivity gains and potential trade gains from investing in such improvements, and that the final outcome in terms of NPV and welfare gains justifies the investment. For example, increased expenditure 2 The benefits highlighted in the case studies assume that a certain investment will result in productivity gains and exports. The scale of the benefit is conditional on the effective design and implementation of the investment to be undertaken, leading to an effective control of the disease (eradication is questionable as there is a significant risk factor that the disease would re-appear, as has been the general experience. The above calculations do not take into account the incremental operational costs involved, which can be a significant part of the cost of strengthening VS. On the other hand, the investment in strengthening the control of a particular disease, e.g. HPAI, can have important spill-over benefits on the entire VS. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 7
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