2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs At a country level the “most likely”, “low impact” and “high impact” scenarios vary in terms of the duration of the impact of the epidemic and the intensity of disease spread within countries. At a global level the three scenarios used are formulated on the basis of the geographical coverage of the disease worldwide, with scenario A including only H5N1 infected countries, scenario B infected and ‘non infected at immediate risk’ countries, and scenario C all developing/transition countries that are members of the OIE. The range of outcomes in relation to direct costs and losses under the different scenarios are indicated in Figure A. The results for scenarios A and B tend to be very similar, reflecting the relatively small number of countries added under scenario B, given the current state of HPAI outbreaks worldwide. If this position changes, with a more substantial geographical spread of the disease, the impact would start moving closer to the substantially higher figures of scenario C. Thus, total direct costs and losses (excluding consequential on-farm losses) in scenarios A and B are estimated at US$ 5.3 billion and US$ 6.1 billion respectively (on an annual basis), but would rise up to US$ 9.7 billion if the disease were to spread throughout the developing world. Including consequential on-farm losses, the total direct impact would be US$ 11.7 billion and US$ 13.5 billion respectively in the case of scenarios A and B, but could rise up to US$ 21.3 billion if the disease was to spread more worldwide along the lines suggested by scenario C. Figure A: Overview of estimated direct impacts under the different scenarios, HPAI (i) Global direct production costs/losses (annual) 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 '000 US$ 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) scenario A (ii) scenario B (iii) scenario C (iv) Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 10
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Global consequential on-farm losses (annual) 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 '000 US$ 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) scenario A (ii) scenario B (iii) scenario C (iv) Global direct impact including consequential on-farm losses (annual) 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 '000 US$ 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) scenario A (ii) scenario B (iii) scenario C (iv) Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 11
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Annexes Prevention and control of a
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