2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Table 23 Estimated global impact: direct costs and losses (a) (in ‘000 US$), HPAI
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Impact: scenario 1 (most likely)
Poultry value
losses
Culling/ Disposal
costs
Control costs
Total impact
(a)
Direct production costs/losses: Global impact, annual (i)
scenario A (ii) 4,271,540 747,519 320,365 5,339,425
scenario B (iii) 4,898,934 857,313 367,420 6,123,668
scenario C (iv) 7,763,260 1,358,571 582,245 9,704,075
Direct production costs/losses: Global impact, total (i)
scenario A (ii) 8,543,080 1,495,039 640,731 10,678,850
scenario B (iii) 9,797,868 1,714,627 734,840 12,247,335
scenario C (iv) 15,526,520 2,717,141 1,164,489 19,408,151
(a) Includes animal value losses, culling/disposal and control costs
(i) The 'global' impact is given in a range, depending on 3 scenarios in terms of country coverage (scenarios A to C). Furthermore, it is indicated per
year and in total, depending on the assumptions for duration of the epidemic
(ii) Scenario A includes the following countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, S. Korea; Mongolia, Kazakshtan, Russia,
Turkey, Romania; Nigeria, Niger, Sudan
(iii) Scenario B includes the countries of scenario A plus: N Korea, Malaysia, Brunei, Myanmar, Singapore, Philippines; Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,
Nepal, Sri Lanka
(iv) Scenario C includes all developing/transition countries which are members of the OIE (132 countries in total)
Source: “OIE Del1 global costs analysis.xls”, Agra CEAS Consulting.
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