2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Table 24 Estimated global impact: total direct costs including consequential on-farm losses (in ‘000 US$), HPAI
Impact: scenario 1 (most likely)
Direct production
costs/losses, total impact (a)
Consequential on-farm
losses
Total direct impact, including
consequential on-farm losses
Global impact, annual (i)
scenario A (ii) 5,339,425 6,407,310 11,746,734
scenario B (iii) 6,123,668 7,348,401 13,472,069
scenario C (iv) 9,704,075 11,644,890 21,348,966
Global impact, total (i)
scenario A (ii) 10,678,850 12,814,619 23,493,469
scenario B (iii) 12,247,335 14,696,802 26,944,137
scenario C (iv) 19,408,151 23,289,781 42,697,931
(a) Includes animal value losses, culling/disposal and control costs
(i) The 'global' impact is given in a range, depending on 3 scenarios in terms of country coverage (scenarios A to C). Furthermore, it is indicated per
year and in total, depending on the assumptions for duration of the epidemic
(ii) Scenario A includes the following countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, S. Korea; Mongolia, Kazakshtan, Russia,
Turkey, Romania; Nigeria, Niger, Sudan
(iii) Scenario B includes the countries of scenario A plus : N Korea, Malaysia, Brunei, Myanmar, Singapore, Philippines; Bangladesh, Bhutan, India,
Nepal, Sri Lanka
(iv) Scenario C includes all developing/transition countries which are members of the OIE (132 countries in total)
Source: “OIE Del1 global costs analysis.xls”, Agra CEAS Consulting.
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