2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
eradication plan’s figures are totals over a 5 year period, and the ALIVE estimates are totals over a 10
year period, while the outbreak costs are quoted as annual amounts. It is also noted that comparisons have
been made only between the public investment components and the total costs. Components of an
effective prevention and control system covered by the private sector, notably investment on biosecurity
which is normally covered by farmers, have not been taken into consideration here. The scale of this
investment is considered to be similar to other smallholder countries with similar poultry farming and
developing country features such as Vietnam, where these were estimated at min US$500-700. This type
of investment is considered prohibitive for the smallholder sector.
The comparison clearly points to the fact that the potential benefits that can accrue from improving
prevention and control are worth several times the investment. It is noted, however, that this relies on the
assumption that a certain investment would result in gains in productivity and export earnings. The extent
to which this will occur will depend on the effective design and implementation of the investment, to
ensure the effective control of the disease. A risk factor will be the re-appearance of the disease, as is often
the case in practice.
The above calculations do not take into account the incremental operational costs involved, which can be a
significant part of the cost of strengthening VS.
On the other hand, the investment in strengthening the control of a particular disease, e.g. HPAI, can have
important spill-over benefits on the entire VS.
As in the case of Vietnam, the conclusions drawn at macro-economic level have important implications at
micro-level, for individual farmers and other business relying on the poultry sector, particularly in the
poorer urban and rural parts of Nigeria. It is estimates that some 70% of poultry is kept in backyard and
village farming.
Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 128