2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs 6.2.1. Key parameters For the analysis of outbreak costs we differentiate between direct and indirect, further broken down by cost sub-category, according to the typology presented in Table 2. Direct costs and losses are calculated in detail per country – member of the OIE 137 and then these are added to obtain the estimate of global direct costs and losses. These costs are also summarised according to country income levels, which is important in the context of the analysis carried out in Deliverable 2 138 . Indirect costs are calculated at a global level (including all developing/transition countries which are members of the OIE). In this case, the available data and the applied methodology do not allow a more detailed breakdown per country. A range of parameters is used to calculate each type of cost, as follows (Table 22): Table 22 Parameters used in global economic analysis of outbreak costs Direct production costs and losses: Direct losses e) Number of poultry lost (died from the disease or culled) f) Average market value per head of poultry (pre-outbreak) g) Culling and disposal costs per head of poultry h) Control costs per head of poultry Consequential on-farm losses i) Farm income from activity per head of poultry j) Duration of farm business disruption Indirect costs: Ripple (a) • Fall in domestic poultry prices • Fall in domestic sales • Fall in world poultry prices • Fall in world poultry trade (exports) • Duration of the above impacts Spill-over (b) • Loss in world tourism income value • Duration of the above impact Wider society (c) • Loss in global GDP in the event of a human pandemic. (a) Total net impact on domestic and international markets: depends on impact of outbreak on consumer demand and price levels and proportion of producers/production affected; unaffected producers/countries may actually gain from higher prices. Excludes other potential ripple effects, notably the impact on agricultural input sectors, due to lack of evidence/data. (b) Costs to the economic sectors of tourism/travel only covered here. Other potentially affected economic sectors (e.g. services) excluded, due to lack of evidence/data. (c) Economic impact based on the public health effects of a pandemic influenza. Excludes other potential impacts, such as environmental effects, due to lack of evidence/data. 137 Within the scope of the ToR for this study, as outlined in section 3.2. 138 As direct costs and losses are calculated per country, it is possible to summarise costs according to any of the clusters presented in section 3.2. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 140
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs These parameters are outlined in more detail the “Assumptions outbreak costs” worksheet of Annex 5. 6.2.2. Scenarios and assumptions Our estimations start from a baseline which contains data derived from the combined analysis of literature review and the case studies. In particular, the baseline on direct outbreak costs includes data from the case studies on Vietnam and Nigeria but also developments in other parts of the world and global developments as documented in the literature. The baseline on indirect outbreak costs is largely based on the available evidence of world developments from the existing literature. The baseline is summarised in the “Assumptions outbreak costs” worksheet, and further detailed in the “Vietnam HPAI”, “Nigeria HPAI”, “global HPAI” and “pandemic effects” worksheets (Annex 5). Assumptions are made in order to extrapolate from the baseline to the country ‘clusters’. At a general level, these assumptions include duration of the impact (which depends on the duration and re-occurrence of the epidemic), the rate of disease spread and the coverage (in terms of countries). At a cost-specific level, assumptions are made on the key parameters that define each type of cost. In the case of direct production costs and losses, these include the extent of poultry population loss, market value, culling/disposal costs, and control costs per head of poultry, and loss of income from business disruption (as indicated above). A total of six scenarios have been formulated, as indicated in Annex 5: • At a country level, scenario 1 (“most likely”), scenario 2 (“low impact”) and scenario 3 (“high impact”) vary in terms of the duration of the impact of the epidemic and the intensity of disease spread within countries. • At a global level, scenario A, scenario B and scenario C are formulated on the basis of the geographical coverage of the disease worldwide, with scenario A including only H5N1 infected countries, scenario B infected and ‘non infected at immediate risk’ countries, and scenario C all developing/transition countries that are members of the OIE 139 . The following comments can be made concerning the assumptions made on the various parameters. Markets (prices and trade): We have taken developments in world poultry markets since the 2003/04 outbreaks as the baseline on which the assumptions have been built. The most likely scenario closely follows the real market developments depicted by the baseline. It is important to note that all assumptions are made in terms of the overall net impact, as price falls and sales decline for the affected producers/countries have generally resulted in gains in price and sales increases for producers/countries that have managed to stay free from the disease (as discussed in section 4.3.). 139 This classification has been adjusted from reference A40, the Global Strategy for Progressive Control of HPAI (November 2005) and A42, Avian Influenza Control and Eradication: FAO proposal (March 2006), with an update of the current situation from OIE WAHID database (February 2007). Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 141
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