2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5
Nigeria: HPAI
Africa: HPAI
Nigerian Naria (N) USD USD USD
Total costs (Oct. 2006) (a) 1,068,760,000 8,389,011 Total costs (1 yr est) 151,340,659
Total costs (est.) (a) (c) 2,313,696,000 18,160,879 Total costs (3 yrs est) 454,021,978
Total compensation (2006 est.) (c)(d) 655,855,200 5,148,000
Value of culled animals per head 700 5.49 Value of culled animals per head 5.49
Compensation rate per head (d) 248 1.95
Culling and disposal costs per head (e) 127 1.00 Culling and disposal costs per head (2) 1.00
Control costs per head (f) 49 0.38 Control costs per head (f) 0.38
Number of birds culled (Oct. 2006) (b) 900,000 900,000
Number of birds died (Oct. 2006) (b) 400,000 400,000
Number of birds culled (est) (c) 2,640,000 2,640,000 Number of birds culled (3 yrs est) (1) 22,000,000 66,000,000
Total value of culled/dead animals (Oct. 2006) 910,000,000 7,142,857 Total value of culled/dead animals (3 yrs est.) 120,879,121 362,637,363
Total culling and disposal costs (Oct. 2006) 114,660,000 900,000 Total culling and disposal costs (3 yrs est.) 22,000,000 66,000,000
Total control costs (Oct. 2006) 44,100,000 346,154 Total control costs (3 yrs est.) 8,461,538 25,384,615
Total value of culled/dead animals (est.) (c ) 1,848,000,000 14,505,495
Total culling and disposal costs (est.) (c ) 336,336,000 2,640,000
Total control costs (est.) (c ) 129,360,000 1,015,385
Market price (layer) (g) 700 5.49
Market price (broiler) (g) 1,000 7.85
Notes:
(a) includes culling (value of culled animals and culling/disposal) and control costs
(b) source: FDLPCS official data (A169)
(c ) assuming disease continues on same course (as in the first 2 months) - the total number of poultry losses in the first 2 months after outbreak first occurred (Feb 2006) was 440,000 (A258)
(d) on the basis of gvmt announcement, compensation for culling only
(e) cost estimates per bird on the basis of destroying and disposing of 1000 birds per day by ad hoc organised teams (source: A7)
(f) assumted to the double that of Vietnam as more costly to organise (for culling/disposal costs per bird ratio of Vietnam to Nigeria was 4:1)
(g) range of current chicken market price (source: UNDP Nigeria, A293)
(1) In Africa, it is estimated that 5 % (around 66,000,000 poultry) of the total poultry population (1.320 billion poultry - poultry population of South Africa not included) would be culled within 3 years (A258)
(2) It is estimated to cost about US$ 1.00 per bird (A258, A7)
Exchange rate: 1USD = Nigerian Naria (source: EIU) 127.4
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