2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Three basic systems of poultry production are identified in Vietnam: family, semi-commercial and commercial/industrial (A9, A16). An estimated 60-70% of poultry is raised in ‘backyard’ family farms (sectors 3 and 4) in close proximity to other birds. In fact, some 94% of the poultry keeping households are reported to fall in the category of a village and scavenging backyard system (A91). Few systems could be classified as being in sector 1 (industrial farms), and these account for 20-25% of the national production. The remainder 10-15% of poultry production is carried out by semi-industrial/commercial farms (sector 2). Poultry is generally sold live in local markets and slaughtered at home, while only a small number of birds are processed through slaughterhouses. The relatively low costs of raising poultry relative to cattle or pigs make it the most popular livestock enterprise in Vietnamese rural households, constituting an important source of cash income – particularly for women – thus contributing significantly to poverty alleviation. It is estimated that some 70% of Vietnam’s 12 million rural households keep poultry. Poultry is the most important livestock-based income source for the poorest quintile, providing about 7% of cash income for these households, as well as being a relatively inexpensive protein source for their own consumption. A classification of Vietnam’s socio-economic position in the world, as carried out for the purposes of this study, can be found in Annex 3. 5.2.1.2. Key AH problem areas Vietnam was selected as a representative case study in Asia because of the HPAI relevance, both in terms of the significance of the outbreaks and in terms of the approach followed and the mobilisation of the international community. The country suffers from a number of high risk factors with respect to AI. Apart from having a relatively high share of sector 3 and 4 poultry systems as discussed above, Vietnam is one of the most densely populated countries in the region and has one of the highest concentration ratios of poultry (501 chicken per sq. km, 716 domestic birds per sq. km) particularly in the areas affected by AI (A16). Further risks arise from farm management practices (close contact with animals and between domestic birds and wild birds) and along the value chain (particularly live bird markets) (A9). A final set of risks, particularly in the first wave of AI in early 2004, emerged from poor knowledge of the disease and how it spread (though this is less prevalent now), and from stakeholders’ efforts to circumvent the control measures imposed (this was not helped by the compensation policy that was first adopted, as will be discussed below) (A3, A9, A258). Since the outbreak of the HPAI H5N1 strain in December 2003, in the three waves of the epidemic 106 , Vietnam has accumulated by far the largest number of outbreaks in the world (2,368) or 52% of the total 106 According to WHO, the spread of HPAI can be categorised into three waves. The first wave of the disease lasted from December 2003 until March 2004, when disease spread to 57 of Vietnam’s 64 provinces resulting to 44 million birds dead/culled (including affected and non-affected birds) and the death of 16 people. The second wave, which was mainly confined to 17 provinces, began in April 2004 and lasted through November, resulting in the culling of 84,000 poultry (all of which were clinically affected), and claimed four people. A third wave of the disease began in December 2004, and until mid 2006 about 1.9 million birds had been slaughtered and twenty two people had died. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 104
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs (followed by Thailand, which accounts for 24% of the total) (Annex 2). The response to the disease has included mass culling (with compensation) and an extensive national poultry vaccination program. Despite improvements in the situation since late 2005, the disease is still uncomfortably present. Since December 2006 only, Vietnam has had 52 outbreaks of HPAI with 10,314 poultry deaths and 15,485 poultry destroyed 107 . This has led experts to conclude that HPAI has become endemic to Vietnam. WHO recently signalled that the outbreaks could take years to end definitely. According to veterinary experts, including the OIE, the main challenges currently posed by the HPAI epidemic in the wider Asian region are set to continue for the foreseeable future (Box 3). Box 3 Current challenges posed by the AI situation in Asia 1. Unprecedented cases and socio-economic impacts (increase of poverty, impediment to trade) 2. Repeated outbreaks since the end of 2003 3. Viruses holding a foothold and circulating 4. Threatening risks to human and animal health 5. No immediate eradication foreseen 6. Spread to new countries and re-emerging (including role of migratory birds) 7. Poor biosecurity – animal production systems 8. Gaps between legislation and its enforcement Source: OIE Regional Representation for Asia and the Pacific, February 2006 (A100) At the same time, Vietnam has reported the highest number of human HPAI infections in any country by a substantial margin. From December 2003, when the first human case was detected, to date there have been 93 confirmed cases (Figure 9). With 42 deaths, this gives a very high case fatality rate (45%) (Figure 10). Concern amongst experts, including the WHO, has arisen over the fact that the virus might mutate in a way that facilitates its transmission, both within and also between species, which would make it progressively more harmful. 107 Vietnam’s latest report to the OIE on HPAI, 17 January 2007. A further 30 outbreaks are still recorded as unresolved. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 105
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