2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 7% 51,800 9,065 3,885 64,750 25% 185,000 32,375 13,875 231,250 7% 8,680 1,519 651 10,850 25% 31,000 5,425 2,325 38,750 7% 1,176 206 88 1,470 25% 4,200 735 315 5,250 7% 2,744 480 206 3,430 25% 9,800 1,715 735 12,250 7% 119,000 20,825 8,925 148,750 25% 425,000 74,375 31,875 531,250 7% 4,884 855 366 6,105 25% 17,442 3,052 1,308 21,803 7% 8 1 1 11 25% 30 5 2 38 7% 38,360 6,713 2,877 47,950 25% 137,000 23,975 10,275 171,250 7% 7,840 1,372 588 9,800 25% 28,000 4,900 2,100 35,000 7% 22,960 4,018 1,722 28,700 25% 82,000 14,350 6,150 102,500 7% 980 172 74 1,225 25% 3,500 613 263 4,375 7% 6,381 1,117 479 7,977 25% 22,790 3,988 1,709 28,488 7% 168 29 13 210 25% 600 105 45 750 7% 5,040 882 378 6,300 25% 18,000 3,150 1,350 22,500 7% 7,000 1,225 525 8,750 25% 25,000 4,375 1,875 31,250 7% 42,196 7,384 3,165 52,745 25% 150,700 26,373 11,303 188,375 7% 1,176 206 88 1,470 25% 4,200 735 315 5,250 7% 46,480 8,134 3,486 58,100 25% 166,000 29,050 12,450 207,500 7% 3,920 686 294 4,900 25% 14,000 2,450 1,050 17,500 7% 4,760 833 357 5,950 25% 17,000 2,975 1,275 21,250 7% 27,791 4,863 2,084 34,739 25% 99,255 17,370 7,444 124,069 7% 38,080 6,664 2,856 47,600 25% 136,001 23,800 10,200 170,001 7% 1,260 221 95 1,575 25% 4,500 788 338 5,625 7% 24,364 4,264 1,827 30,455 25% 87,014 15,227 6,526 108,768 7% 92,038 16,107 6,903 115,047 25% 328,707 57,524 24,653 410,884 7% 560 98 42 700 25% 2,000 350 150 2,500 7% 81 14 6 102 25% 290 51 22 363 7% 39,480 6,909 2,961 49,350 25% 141,000 24,675 10,575 176,250 7% 7,549 1,321 566 9,436 25% 26,959 4,718 2,022 33,699 7% 4,262 746 320 5,327 25% 15,221 2,664 1,142 19,026 7% 2,100 368 158 2,625 25% 7,500 1,313 563 9,375 7% 560 98 42 700 25% 2,000 350 150 2,500 7% 952 167 71 1,190 25% 3,400 595 255 4,250 7% 33,880 5,929 2,541 42,350 25% 121,000 21,175 9,075 151,250 7% 3,258 570 244 4,073 25% 11,636 2,036 873 14,545 7% 10,360 1,813 777 12,950 25% 37,000 6,475 2,775 46,250 7% 1,064 186 80 1,330 25% 3,800 665 285 4,750 7% 896 157 67 1,120 25% 3,200 560 240 4,000 7% 6,663 1,166 500 8,328 25% 23,795 4,164 1,785 29,744 7% 0 0 0 0 25% 0 0 0 0 7% 643 113 48 804 25% 2,296 402 172 2,870 7% 8,400 1,470 630 10,500 25% 30,000 5,250 2,250 37,500 7% 72,800 12,740 5,460 91,000 25% 260,000 45,500 19,500 325,000 7% 2,520 441 189 3,150 25% 9,000 1,575 675 11,250 7% 7,896 1,382 592 9,870 25% 28,200 4,935 2,115 35,250 7% 17,920 3,136 1,344 22,400 25% 64,000 11,200 4,800 80,000 7% 83,125 14,547 6,234 103,907 25% 296,876 51,953 22,266 371,095 7% 1,960 343 147 2,450 25% 7,000 1,225 525 8,750 7% 9,128 1,597 685 11,410 25% 32,600 5,705 2,445 40,750 7% 36,953 6,467 2,771 46,192 25% 131,976 23,096 9,898 164,970 7% 4,200 735 315 5,250 25% 15,000 2,625 1,125 18,750 7% 3,920 686 294 4,900 25% 14,000 2,450 1,050 17,500 7% 5,751 1,006 431 7,189 25% 20,540 3,595 1,541 25,675 7% 95 17 7 119 25% 340 60 26 425 7% 30,800 5,390 2,310 38,500 25% 110,000 19,250 8,250 137,500 7% 43,102 7,543 3,233 53,878 25% 153,937 26,939 11,545 192,421 7% 10,360 1,813 777 12,950 25% 37,000 6,475 2,775 46,250 7% 8,400 1,470 630 10,500 25% 30,000 5,250 2,250 37,500 7% 6,440 1,127 483 8,050 25% 23,000 4,025 1,725 28,750 3,622,855 634,000 271,714 4,528,568 12,938,767 2,264,284 970,408 16,173,459 Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 15
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Disease: HPAI in '000 US$ Poultry stock ('000 head) GDP ('000 US$) Baseline Trade volume (tonnes) Tourism/travel value ('000 US$) Ripple: domestic market (a) Ripple: export markets (b) Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Spill-over: tourism (c ) Wider society (d) Total impact 2005 2004-05 avg 2003-04 avg. 2004 est. 12,938,767 44,450,000,000 8,630,000 1,500,000,000 Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, annual (i) Indirect costs/losses: Global impact, total (i) 5,279,017 3,774,984 72,000,000 311,150,000 392,204,001 711,200,000 792,254,001 10,558,034 7,549,968 144,000,000 622,300,000 784,408,002 1,422,400,000 1,584,508,002 Notes: (a) Domestic sales loss = loss in monthly sales volume (% of poultry stock affected by crisis x lower price) + loss in monthly sales value (% of poultry stock not affected by crisis x price drop) x duration (months): Ripple (domestic market): detailed calculations poultry sold in dometic markets ('000 head): 2,587,753 poultry sales loss ('000 head): 517,551 poultry sales loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 931,591 rest of poultry sold in domestic markets ('000 head): 2,070,203 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 828,081 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 1,759,672 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 5,279,017 (b) Exports loss = loss in monthly exports volume (% of exports affected by crisis x lower price) + loss in monthly sales value (% of exports not affected by crisis x price drop) x duration (months) : Ripple (export markets): detailed calculations poultry exports (tonnes): 8,630,000 poultry exports loss (tonnes): 43,150 poultry exports loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 52,319 rest of poultry exports (tonnes): 8,586,850 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 104,973 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 157,291 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 3,774,984 (c) tourism value loss x duration (months) (d) low value assumes 15% attack rate; high value assumes 35% attack rate (i) Indicated per year and in total, depending on the assumptions for duration of the epidemic - see 'assumptions outbreak costs' FOR ASSUMPTIONS SEE WORKSHEET 'Assumptions outbreak costs' Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 16
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