2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
The global financing framework for HPAI is summarised in Table 3. Of the estimated financial needs in
the original estimates in January 2006, infected and newly infected countries account for the majority
(60%). A relatively high amount was also estimated for countries at ‘high risk’ (38% of the total), which
reflected the large number of countries falling in this category. In terms of geographical distribution of the
country needs, a comparison of the January 2006 and December 2006 estimates reflects clearly the change
in focus following the emergence of HPAI/H5N1 in Africa. In the original estimates of January 2006, East
Asia accounted for over half of the total (52.8%), followed by Europe/Central Asia (18.7%), sub-Saharan
Africa (12.2%), and Middle East/North Africa (9.15%). In the revised estimates of December 2006, East
Asia maintained the largest share (41.1%), while the share of Sub-Saharan Africa increased substantially
(25.9%). In fact, between the two estimates, the financing needs for Africa have increased fourfold, the
needs for East Asia and South Asia increased by about 50%, and the needs of the Middle east/North
Africa more than doubled. The largest need increases were for Egypt and Nigeria. Indonesia accounted for
a large part of the increase in the financing gap in East Asia.
Given that the above framework covers the next 2-3 years (3 years from January 2006, 2 years from
January 2007), it could be deducted that – as it currently stands - the global estimates of the required
investment in improved prevention and control for an integrated (animal and human health) HPAI project,
including country needs and regional needs, come to an average US$ 860 million per year.
Table 3 Prevention and control of HPAI: global financing framework and country needs
Needs (a)
(million US$)
WB: Financing needs and gaps, January 2006 (Beijing pledging conference)
• Country needs (b), of which: 1,202.3
Infected countries
Newly infected
High risk
Low/moderate risk
565.9
150.5
461.1
24.8
TOTAL (c) 1,809.7
WB: Financing needs and gaps, December 2006 (Bamako pledging conference)
• Country needs (b), of which: 2,273.9
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia & Pacific
Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia
588.9
935.2
247.0
21.0
233.0
148.7
TOTAL 2,273.9
(a) Estimates of needs for the next 2-3 years
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