2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
In December 2006, at a major three-day international donor conference on avian flu in Bamako 66 , the
World Bank provided revised estimates of the global financing needs and gaps for combating avian flu
during the 2006-08 period, with total needs for country-level support estimated at US$ 2.27 billion 67
(A147 and A282).
The revised estimates were justified as follows. Firstly, it was already evident that due to the high
disbursement rates of the previous pledges (as of end of October 2006, some 75% of the Beijing pledges
had been committed and 51% had been disbursed) grants were already exhausted and not available for
programs going forward 68 . Secondly, the focus of the previous pledges had been mainly East Asia and
East Europe with Africa receiving little support; consequently, the revised estimates placed an increased
emphasis on support to newly infected countries in sub-Saharan Africa while maintaining the level of
effort required for fighting the disease in SE Asia (Table 3). Thirdly, since the Beijing pledge, there had
been a dramatic increase in the number of countries reporting infection (55 in total since January 2006),
and in the number of human deaths (154 in total).
The World Bank estimated that, under two different scenarios, the financing gaps as in December 2006
were US$ 880 million to US$ 1.15 billion. As of today, it appears that following the Bamako donor
conference, a further US$ 475 million has been pledged by international donors 69 .
As part of the overall financing framework for avian influenza control, the World Bank proposed in
December 2005 a $500 million multi-country facility (a horizontal APL) designed along the lines of a
multi-country Adaptable Program Loan (MAP) for a global program for avian influenza control and
human pandemic preparedness and response (A43). A total 30 projects have been approved to date under
this programme for a total US$330 million. The total and individual detailed components under each
project are summarised in Annex 4, and more details of the projects that are currently in progress in
Nigeria and Romania are contained in the case studies on these countries (sections 5.3 and 5.4
respectively).
66 The objectives of the Bamako Conference were: (1) To take stock of international mobilisation within the
framework of a world wide partnership in the fight against the avian influenza epizootic and the prevention of a
global pandemic; (2) To provide the necessary technical elements and draw lessons from the initial experiences with
a view to improving the global combat strategy; (3) To develop a specific advocacy strategy that targets African
governments and the donor community for increased financial support to combat the disease on the continent. For
more information see: www.avianinfluenzaconference4.org
67 In addition, estimates were given of need to support UN agencies ($300 million for 1 year) and the OIE ($25
million for 1 year only).
68 The only source of funding with substantial uncommitted amounts were the multilateral development banks (WB
and ADB). As of end of October 2006, they had committed $281m to specific AHI programs, against Beijing
pledges of $974m. However, these uncommitted funds were mostly loans and concessional credits, rather than
grants. Disbursement rates of multilateral development banks were low because the country programs that they
finance are multi-year (strengthening of animal and human health services and other capacity-building typically
requires 3-5 year programs). To circumvent this problem, and facilitate speedy implementation, the World Bank
applies its emergency lending procedures to avian flu projects under its Global Programme for Avian Influenza
Control (GPAI/APLs) (A43).
69 In addition to the $513 million committed as at end of October 2006.
Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 53