2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs within areas of high livestock density (brought about by the intensification of production over the last 30 years) has led to large economic losses in the developed world (e.g. UK FMD), and this danger is now believed to be more acute in the developing world where veterinary and human health services generally tend to be weaker (A58). The livestock sector in developing countries has experienced phenomenal growth in the last decade, to the extent that the literature widely refers to this as the 'livestock revolution'. This has been fuelled mainly by economic growth, population growth, urbanisation and the resulting global expansion in demand for food of animal origin (A58, A96, A111c). Nonetheless, substantial differences remain in the livestock structures and farming systems between the developing countries examined here, due to differential extent and nature of livestock sector growth in each country/region. These mirror the general levels and patterns of economic growth in the various countries, but also reflect more historical factors such as the fact that livestock fulfils different goals from region to region, between countries and even within different regions of a country. Thus, at international level, there has been considerable variation in terms of the livestock sector’s contribution to economic development and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals 7 . For example some parts of the developing world, in particular sub-Saharan Africa have lagged behind in the phenomenon of the livestock revolution which has characterised other developing regions 10 ; even between African countries, the livestock sector has experienced differential patterns of development, whether supply or demand induced (A187). Thus, the resulting structures of the livestock sector can vary considerably between the developing countries under review. The FAO have established a typology of poultry production systems, which has been followed in the 2004 FAO recommendations on AI prevention in Asia (A14). This typology has been used in a number of studies on the impact of HPAI and compensation issues (FAO: A91, A159), for the analysis of the type of impacts the disease has caused to the various farming systems and implications for effective compensation as a control measure. The FAO typology distinguishes between 4 ‘sectors’: in sectors 1 and 2 production tends to be large-scale, highly integrated, with well-organised bio-security systems and quality control processes in sectors which usually tend to be more export-oriented; sector 3 farms are commercially oriented and can be fairly medium scale but tend to be less bio-secure; sector 4 is what the literature widely refers to as ‘backyard’ farming or minimum input – minimum output systems with low biosecurity levels but high importance for the survival of poor rural populations (i.e. central to food security and poverty alleviation). This typology has been applied in a number of country studies including Vietnam (A16, A159) and Nigeria (A293), which are two of the case studies presented here. The majority of developing countries have predominantly sector 3 and sector 4 poultry systems, but in newly industrialised and key livestock product exporting developing countries - such as Brazil, Malaysia and Thailand - poultry systems are closer to sectors 1 and 2 as is the case in the developed world (A159). An illustration of the differential impact a disease can have in the various production systems is the fact that in emerging countries that have experienced HPAI, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, sector 3 which was previously expanding and if the virus enters the latter, infection may have a greater impact due to the concentration of susceptible poultry in these farms. 10 Mwangi D M and Omore A 2004 The Livestock Revolution - a view on implications for Africa. British Society of Animal Science, Penicuik, UK. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 20
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs increasingly prevalent appears to have shrunk dramatically. The evidence therefore strongly suggests that the HPAI crisis has accelerated the sector’s restructuring. It is stressed that the situation is very dynamic, as the livestock sector in the developing/transition countries is evolving rapidly within some of the fastest growing economies and populations in the world (e.g. China). Globalisation, the changing focus of agricultural development, and the changing production and consumption patterns all have implications for the provisions of animal health services (A66). Population growth, increasing income and urbanisation are causing a marked increase in demand for livestock products in the developing/transition world. According to IFPRI projections, the number of people in the world is projected to be 7.7 billion by 2020, with the largest increase coming from the developing world. If current trends continue, there will be a significant percentage of people in developing/transition countries whose diets will be modified from plant-based to meat- and dairy-based. To supply these needs, it is estimated that global livestock production in 2020 will have to be at least double the 2000 levels (A96). 3.4. Description of prevention and control systems 3.4.1. Overview The prevention and control of animal diseases 11 involves a series of measures taken ex ante and ex post in response to an anticipated disease outbreak, moving from short term control and containment (in the event of first occurrence of an outbreak) to medium term (activities followed after short term control measures), to longer term (following eradication or return to a ‘normal’ situation). The WTO SPS Agreement recognises the OIE as the relevant international organisation responsible for the development and promotion of international animal health standards, guidelines, and recommendations affecting trade in live animals and animal products. An overview of the OIE provisions, as outlined in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code, is provided in Table 1. 11 This section deals only with the animal health aspects of prevention strategies. The human health aspects are covered by WHO material, including the results of the 2005 Lyon conference on strengthening national capacities for epidemic preparedness and response in support to national implementation of international regulations (A214), and the WHO contribution to the Geneva 2005 meeting on Avian Influenza (AI) Emergency Preparedness and Response (A223). Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 21
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