2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5
in '000 US$
in '000 US$
Ripple: domestic
market (a)
Ripple: export
markets (b)
Impact: scenario 2 (low impact)
Spill-over: tourism
(c )
Wider society
(d)
Total impact
Ripple: domestic
market (a)
Ripple: export
markets (b)
Impact: scenario 3 (high impact)
Spill-over: tourism
(c )
Wider society
(d)
Total impact
957,469 883,898 18,000,000 177,800,000 197,641,367 17,389,703 11,255,904 360,000,000 444,500,000 833,145,607
711,200,000 731,041,367 1,333,500,000 1,722,145,607
957,469 883,898 18,000,000 177,800,000 197,641,367 52,169,109 33,767,712 1,080,000,000 1,333,500,000 2,499,436,821
711,200,000 731,041,367 4,000,500,000 5,166,436,821
Ripple (domestic market): detailed calculations
Ripple (domestic market): detailed calculations
poultry sold in dometic markets ('000 head): 2,587,753 poultry sold in dometic markets ('000 head): 2,587,753
poultry sales loss ('000 head): 258,775 poultry sales loss ('000 head): 1,035,101
poultry sales loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 491,673 poultry sales loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 1,656,162
rest of poultry sold in domestic markets ('000 head): 2,328,978 rest of poultry sold in domestic markets ('000 head): 1,552,652
poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 465,796 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 1,242,122
Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 957,469 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 2,898,284
Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 957,469 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 17,389,703
Ripple (export markets): detailed calculations
Ripple (export markets): detailed calculations
poultry exports (tonnes): 8,630,000 poultry exports (tonnes): 8,630,000
poultry exports loss (tonnes): 17,260 poultry exports loss (tonnes): 86,300
poultry exports loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 21,014 poultry exports loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 103,774
rest of poultry exports (tonnes): 8,612,740 rest of poultry exports (tonnes): 8,543,700
poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 52,645 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 208,890
Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 73,658 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 312,664
Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 883,898 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 11,255,904
Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 17