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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Literature review: economic impact of animal diseases
The economic costs of major TADs have been hitherto largely under-studied, particularly in
developing/transition countries (with the notable exception of some studies of CBPP, RVF
and rinderpest in African countries). In recent years, following major outbreaks (FMD,
HPAI) and mounting concern worldwide on the potential repercussions of such diseases on
farmers, the rural community and the wider economy, more examples of such analysis have
started to emerge also in other regions of the world.
Existing literature on this subject is relatively scattered, and concentrates mostly on
particular diseases, countries, and types of impact, within a certain time period. There are
hardly any examples of systematic analysis undertaken at a regional level and across the
broad spectrum of types of impact followed by our study.
While there is wide consensus in the available literature that indirect or longer term impacts
(such as loss of consumer confidence or the effects on trade and tourism) are far greater
than the direct or shorter term impacts (loss of poultry value, consequential on-farm losses),
as proven to be the case in the particular case of the studies examined here, there is a need
for determining on a global worldwide level the extent and relative importance of the
various impacts. We have sought to address this gap by estimating these impacts for
individual countries and on a world scale (section 6).
Determining the relative scale of the range of impacts, and therefore of the potential benefits
involved, is essential for policy-making. It enables policy-makers to identify the potential
benefits of improved prevention and control policies in order to define the relative costbenefit
of alternative options, so as to concentrate on appropriate and proportionate policy
measures and investment decisions in each case (disease, country, region).
4.4. Comparison of prevention versus outbreak costs: cost-benefit analysis
The shortcomings of a CBA (cost-benefit analysis) approach, notably in terms of data requirements and
the dependence on the underlying scenarios/assumptions, have been discussed elsewhere in this report
(sections 3.7 and 4). This is hardly surprising, given that even in the broader field of disaster management
there are very few examples of CBA analysis at present (A138).
Due to these constraints, there are relatively few examples of thorough cost-benefit analysis in the
reviewed literature. Selected examples are presented in Table 10.
The majority of the studies reviewed deal with a more tangible and measurable type of benefit, the trade
impact. Overwhelmingly, the available research supports the thesis that improved prevention and control
(including through the improvement in VS) contribute to significant gains in trade, which justify the
investment. This is particularly so in the case of FMD, but there are important such benefits also in the
case of HPAI. In some cases (e.g. A141) the benefit in terms of productivity gains, although significant, is
not a sufficient argument on its own in macro-economic terms to justify the investment.
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