2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Country US Impact In the US, where 62% of oilseed and cereal production is destined for animal feed, an epizootic that would reduce livestock production by 10% would immediately result in the loss of 418,000 jobs, a surplus of 18.4 million tonnes of cereal and oilseed crops, a 10% drop in global market prices, and crises in other producer countries. (A292) Other inputs: demand for chicks Indonesia Brazil The drastic fall in demand and prices which was caused by the HPAI outbreaks in early 2004 had consequences for the producers of hatching eggs and day-old chicken. The demand for day-old chicks in the infected areas decreased by 58% for broilers and 40% for layers. Overall, the weekly supply of day-old chicks fell by 17.5% for broilers and 25% for layers. According to data from the Indonesian Poultry information Centre, within 1-2 months from the outbreak, sales of broilers fell from around 21 million per week to 14 million, while prices fell from Rupia 2200 per day-old chick to as low as Rupia 200. (A16, A76, A91) In Brazil, where 30% of poultry production is for export, the price of a day-old chick – an early indicator of a possible change in production – is reported to have fallen by 50% following global reports on HPAI. Even through the country is not infected, market uncertainties and price drops have prompted larger producers to cut their production by 15% this year (2006), thus affecting the country’s export outlook (A292). Wholesale markets/traders Vietnam (a) Nigeria (a) The reorganisation of HCMC’s chicken and egg production following the HPAI outbreaks (and the need to ensure product safety) led to a decline in the number of wholesale egg markets from 134 to 75, while the number of poultry markets fell from 1,550 to 7 (excluding supermarkets). (A9) Associated businesses such as those trading in poultry products are estimated to have lost close to N 61.7 million ($0.5 million): this is estimated as the 10% of the farm gate price of the number of birds that were either culled or dead as a result of the HPAI. One live chicken sellers’ association (Abubakar Rimi Market in Kano, reputed to be the largest local chicken market in Nigeria), claimed that their sales dropped from 10,000 birds to only 1,000 birds per day in February/March 2006. The price also crashed from N350 to N150 per bird during the crisis. Similar experiences were reported in other markets. (A293) Catering sector Nigeria (a) A sharp drop by 81% was reported in sales in restaurants, fast food business outlets, roadside roasted chicken sellers and egg sellers within 2 weeks following the announcement of HPAI outbreaks (February 2006), which by May 2006 had only recovered to 67.7% of the pre-outbreak sales. (A293) (a) More extensive information on the costs in these countries can be found in the case studies Source: compiled by Agra CEAS Consulting Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 84
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs 4.3.3.2. Spill-over effects Tourism and services appear to be the two other sectors that are most severely affected by disease outbreaks. The extent to which this will have a significant macro-economic impact will depend on the contribution of these sectors to the national economy. In countries where these two sectors make a major contribution, as was the case for example with HPAI in parts of SE Asia, the impact can be devastating. (A12). In the United Kingdom, the adverse impact of FMD on tourism and leisure totalled US$49 billion because of bans on access to rural areas, representing more than half the total cost of the disease (based on FAO, 2002 data). Similarly, indirect costs in Ireland, including spill-over effects, are estimated at 95% of the total US$5 billion loss incurred in 4 months only (Table 6). Significant impacts for the tourism and services sectors were also found in a 2002 Canadian simulation of the impact of a potential FMD outbreak (A112). It is noted that similar diversion effects to those evident in trade may take place in the case of tourism and services. From studies looking at the effects on tourism in the UK during the 2001 FMD epidemic, there appears to be significant transfer of lost regional tourism revenue to other regions' tourism (certain studies argue that up to 75% transfers may have occurred, e.g. A249). It is plausible that such impacts may have occurred between countries or even between regions. 4.3.3.3. Wider society The most obvious economic losses of a potential human pandemic are a shrinking and less productive workforce. Experts concede that, in the event of a pandemic, the losses could be as severe as ten times greater than all the other losses combined. According to the latest data by the WHO, by 3 February 2007 a total 271 human cases of H5N1 had been reported, causing a total 165 deaths. This represents a case-fatality rate of 61%. Of concern to experts has been the persistence of the disease and the growing number of cases/deaths since the first outbreak in 2003 (Figure 8). Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 85
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