2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 in '000 US$ in '000 US$ Ripple: domestic market (a) Ripple: export markets (b) Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Spill-over: tourism (c ) Wider society (d) Total impact Ripple: domestic market (a) Ripple: export markets (b) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) Spill-over: tourism (c ) Wider society (d) Total impact 957,469 883,898 18,000,000 177,800,000 197,641,367 17,389,703 11,255,904 360,000,000 444,500,000 833,145,607 711,200,000 731,041,367 1,333,500,000 1,722,145,607 957,469 883,898 18,000,000 177,800,000 197,641,367 52,169,109 33,767,712 1,080,000,000 1,333,500,000 2,499,436,821 711,200,000 731,041,367 4,000,500,000 5,166,436,821 Ripple (domestic market): detailed calculations Ripple (domestic market): detailed calculations poultry sold in dometic markets ('000 head): 2,587,753 poultry sold in dometic markets ('000 head): 2,587,753 poultry sales loss ('000 head): 258,775 poultry sales loss ('000 head): 1,035,101 poultry sales loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 491,673 poultry sales loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 1,656,162 rest of poultry sold in domestic markets ('000 head): 2,328,978 rest of poultry sold in domestic markets ('000 head): 1,552,652 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 465,796 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 1,242,122 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 957,469 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 2,898,284 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 957,469 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 17,389,703 Ripple (export markets): detailed calculations Ripple (export markets): detailed calculations poultry exports (tonnes): 8,630,000 poultry exports (tonnes): 8,630,000 poultry exports loss (tonnes): 17,260 poultry exports loss (tonnes): 86,300 poultry exports loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 21,014 poultry exports loss (volume loss x lower price) ('000 US$): 103,774 rest of poultry exports (tonnes): 8,612,740 rest of poultry exports (tonnes): 8,543,700 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 52,645 poultry sales loss (lower volume x price drop) ('000 US$) 208,890 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 73,658 Total poultry sales loss (monthly, '000 US$): 312,664 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 883,898 Total poultry sales loss ('000 US$): 11,255,904 Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 17
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs, Annex 5 Global HPAI Period Total Year avg Global number of poultry culled/dead ('000 head) (a) 2005-06 250,000 125,000 Global poultry population ('000 head) (b) 2005 12,938,767 Share of global poultry population (%) 2005-06 1.9% 1.0% Global value of poultry trade loss ('000 US$) (c) 2006 2,000,000 Trade loss as % of global value of poultry exports (c) (d) 2006/2003-04 avg 19.0% Global volume of poultry trade loss (tonnes) (d) 2004-05/2003-04 a 863,000 431,500 Trade loss as % of global volume of poultry exports (c) (d) 2004-05 10.0% 5.0% World poultry price drop (%) (c ) 2004-05 20.0% 10.0% Loss in travel and tourism sector (% of global value) (e) estimate 5.0% Human infections: cases (f) 2003-Feb 2007 271 90 Human infections: dead (f) 2003-Feb 2007 165 55 Human infections: fatality rate (%) (f) 2003-Feb 2007 60.9% 60.9% AI pandemic impact (GDP loss, '000 US$) (g) simulation 400,000,000 AI pandemic impact (% fall in GDP) (g) simulation 1% AI pandemic impact (GDP loss, '000 US$) (h) simulation 800,000,000 AI pandemic impact (% fall in GDP) (h) simulation 2% AI pandemic impact (GDP loss, '000 US$) (i) simulation 2,000,000,000 AI pandemic impact (% fall in GDP) (i) simulation 5% Global GDP ('000 US$, nominal) (k) 2005 44,450,000,000 Global value of poultry trade ('000 US$) (d) 2003-04 average 10,550,000 Global volume of poultry trade (tonnes) (d) 2003-04 average 8,630,000 World poultry price (US$ per kg) (l) 2003-04 average 1.2 Global value of travel/tourism ('000 US$) (m) 2004 est. 1,500,000,000 Notes: (a) FAO data, as at end of October 2006 (b) FAOSTAT, total chicken numbers (c) FAO poultry meat outlook; FAO symposium, November 2006 (d) FAOSTAT, value and volume of global exports (e) OEF analysis of a human pandemic assumes total halt in travel/tourism (A210) - here a milder impact is assumed following an AI in animals only. (f) WHO (3 February 2007) (g) Oxford Economic Forecasting, based on SARS, minimum cost (h) World Bank estimates, based on SARS (i) Oxford Economic Forecasting, based on SARS, adding 'trade multiplier effects' (k) World Bank, IMF (l) On average the value of trade divided by volume. In 2006, this was also the average export price for the US, Brazil and Europe, which together account for over 80% of world poultry exports. (m) Global annual value of travel/tourism estimated by World Tourism Organisation (UN/WTO) Civic Consulting - Agra CEAS Consulting 18
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