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2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide<br />

Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs<br />

5.4.3. Costs of outbreaks<br />

Official conservative estimates have put the total economic losses due to HPAI since the beginning of the<br />

outbreaks at an amount of EUR 192 million. This figure excludes costs, for which official quantitative<br />

estimates (in the form o f official statistics or formal <strong>report</strong>s and claims) are not available. Actual losses<br />

are therefore likely to be under-estimated by this figure.<br />

The public expenditures incurred as a consequence of HPAI outbreaks in the period October 2005 to May<br />

2006 alone are summarised in Table 21.<br />

Table 21 Romania: some direct costs of HPAI outbreaks (a)<br />

Government expenditure<br />

(Euro million)<br />

Outbreak operations (disinfection, culling, incineration) 5.7<br />

Compensation to poultry producers 3.9<br />

Vaccination of civil population and security forces 1.0<br />

Preventive medication, anti-viral drugs (Tamiflu) 0.2<br />

Sanitary and protection equipment, information campaign 0.3<br />

Road and railway disinfection 45.2<br />

TOTAL 56.3<br />

(a) Includes public expenditure incurred during the October 2005 to May 2006 period. Excludes certain<br />

expenditures for which no official data available.<br />

Source: official statistics (A93a)<br />

In addition, the private sector suffered important economic losses. For the poultry sector, these are<br />

estimated at around EUR 70 million, coming from depressed prices (down by 41%), drop in demand<br />

(down by 22%), extra-storage costs (up by 18%), lost export opportunities (down by 14%), extradisinfection<br />

costs (up by 14%), and delays in the production flows. The Federation o f the Employers in<br />

the Romanian Tourism estimates that the tourism sector losses caused by the outbreaks could be up to<br />

EUR 50 million in the period from October 2005 to March 2006 alone. In addition, poultry holders<br />

suffered losses from lost production during an average period of 6 weeks after infection, culling, and<br />

disinfection. These losses have been estimated at about EUR 1.5 million since October 2005. More<br />

generally, the AI outbreaks in Romania have demonstrated the extreme susceptibility o f the sector to the<br />

market collapse caused by loss of consumer confidence.<br />

The WB GPAI/APL project has thus concluded that there are clear cost benefits in improving prevention<br />

and control of HPAI.<br />

Civic <strong>Consulting</strong> • <strong>Agra</strong> <strong>CEAS</strong> <strong>Consulting</strong> 135

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