2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Country
Thailand
Taipei
China
Impact
Prior to the HPAI outbreaks in late 2003, Thailand was the world’s fourth largest poultry exporter.
With approximately 40% of Thailand’s estimated production of 1.5 million tonnes destined for
export markets, market closures resulted in a 40% decline in export earnings in 2004, from an
estimated US$ 1.1 billion to US$ 674 million. (A76)
The global pig meat market was affected by the FMD outbreak in Taipei China, when its pork
exports, valued in 1996 at US$ 1.6 billion, fell to US$ 234 million in 1997. The result was a gain in
access for some of its major competitors into Taipei China’s previous export markets. (A111d)
(a)
More extensive information on these countries can be found in the case studies
Source: compiled by Agra CEAS Consulting
Although there is no uniform pattern of the rate at which demand for the affected products and prices /
trade at world level recover, it appears that zoonotic diseases such HPAI and BSE have longer lasting
effects than diseases of less public health concern (such as FMD). From the experience of previous
outbreaks, it appears that changing consumption and trade patterns related to zoonotic animal diseases
tend to recover within two years.
c) Impact on sector’s restructuring
As already discussed, animal diseases can have profound effects on a country’s livestock industry
structure and outlook.
Evidence suggests than in many cases the HPAI crisis has tended to accelerate the sectoral restructuring
trend already under way in SE Asia. For example, in the case of Vietnam, while all poultry stakeholders
have suffered in the short term from AI and the ensuing collapse in demand for poultry meat and eggs, the
longer-term restructuring of the industry already under way – especially in and around big urban centres –
has created a divergence in their future prospects. Farmers in Sectors 4 and 3 continue facing weaker
demand in rural areas and an urban market that prohibits their produce (this would affect particularly the
more commercially oriented sector 3), while commercial producers in Sectors 1 and 2 face better growth
prospects as the market for “certified” poultry grows and consumers become more accustomed to
processed products (A9).
d) Impact on upstream/downstream sectors
In addition to the above, a range of negative impacts prevail in the sectors upstream/downstream from
livestock production as such. Amongst these, we distinguish the impact on the feed sector which is most
documented by literature. The various HPAI crises, for example, have caused demand for feed to drop
substantially in the EU-25, in Asia and in Africa, affecting the feed sector even in all countries that were
important suppliers of feed inputs (Table 9). The latest simulations of the FAO model indicate that, with
lower meat production pushing down grain and protein feed consumption, this may result in price drops 89
89 However, this should be compensated by the increase in cereal prices because of the increasing demand for this
raw material from the growth of the bio-fuel sector.
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