2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide
Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs
Case study: Argentina
The FMD campaign undertaken in South America during 1999-2004 has demonstrated the
value of regional action when the control of TADs of major economic importance to the
region is being sought. It also demonstrates the significance of maintaining the investment
when pockets of resistance remain which risk to erupt to full blown outbreaks in countries of
the region.
Some US$ 3.5 billion have been committed on the fight against FMD by South American
countries during 1990-2004 (Figure 12), which is considered to have contributed to an
effective control of the disease during this period (Figure 11).
Against this, in the space of only a year, the 2000/01 FMD outbreak in Argentina has
resulted to losses in beef export revenue alone of US$ 439 million.
Preliminary results of on-going cost-benefit analysis of improvements in Argentina’s and
wider Latin American VS (OIE Regional Representation/CEMA) suggest that there are
significant benefits in terms of both productivity gains and potential trade gains from
investing in such improvements, and that the final outcome in terms of NPV and welfare
gains justifies the investment.
For example, an increased expenditure of some US$ 18 million in Argentina’s VS would
result in productivity gains of US$ 20 million per year, and additional annual exports of
260.000 tonnes..
5.2. Vietnam (Asia)
5.2.1. Background
5.2.1.1. Importance of livestock sector to the economy
Vietnam’s total poultry population is estimated at around 250 million birds, including 20-60 million ducks
and geese. The livestock sector accounts for about 20% of the agricultural GDP or about 5% of the
country’s total GDP (A97). Poultry is the country’s second most important meat category after pork,
accounting for an estimated 13% of the total in 2004 (though it averaged about 16% prior to the onset of
AI) (A9). Of this share, 70% is made up of chicken, and the remainder is mostly duck and geese.
According to FAOSTA data, the sector has experienced strong growth during the 1990s and until the AI
outbreaks (1990-2000: 5.8% average annual growth rate; 2000-03: 8.3%), but in 2004 the sector has
dramatically recessed (-11.8%).
The bulk of the production is for domestic use: Vietnam is a net importer of livestock products, and their
share of total agricultural trade value is very small.
Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 103