2294 part 1 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

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Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs Global direct production costs and losses, scenario C (annual) 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 '000 US$ 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Impact: scenario 1 (most likely) Impact: scenario 2 (low impact) Impact: scenario 3 (high impact) Poultry value losses Culling/ Disposal costs Control costs Note: Impact presented on an annual basis. For full results see Annex 5 Source: “OIE Del1 global costs analysis.xls”, Agra CEAS Consulting. 6.3.2. Indirect impact The various indirect costs in the event of an HPAI outbreak have been estimated as a range between 3 possible outcomes from the 3 main scenarios (‘most likely’, ‘low impact’ and ‘high impact’). Unlike direct costs, it has not been possible to estimate costs per country, therefore it has not been possible to examine scenarios A, B and C on the geographical country coverage. As discussed above, this is due to the complexity of interactions, whereby a loss in one sector may be a gain in another. Thus, the effects given here are an estimated net impact which accommodates for such interactions, based on assumptions taken from the baseline i.e. the experience we have now gained from the global impact on world markets following the AI outbreaks of the last few years. Global estimates of the indirect impact under the ‘most likely scenario’ are presented in Table 25, on an annual basis and in total terms (i.e. depending on the duration of the impact of the epidemic). Under the ‘most likely’ scenario, ripple costs are estimated at US$ 5.3 billion in terms of domestic market losses in the poultry sector and a further US$ 3.8 billion in terms of export market losses on an annual basis. Assuming a 2 year duration of impact, as is currently the case under the ‘most likely’ scenario based on real market baseline trends, the total ripple impact in terms of domestic and export market losses in the poultry sector would be double the above amounts (i.e. US$ 10.6 billion and US$ 7.5 billion respectively). Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 150
Prevention and control of animal diseases worldwide Part I: Economic analysis: prevention versus outbreak costs The considerable extent to which the relative value of spill-over (tourism) and wider society (human pandemic) costs outweigh the ripple effects is highlighted under the different scenarios in Figure 19. In the case of spill-over effects in the tourism sector alone, these are estimated to amount to US$ 72 billion on an annual basis under the ‘most likely’ scenario and double that amount assuming a 2-year duration of the impact (i.e. US$ 144 billion). Wider society costs, in the event of a human pandemic, are several multiples of all costs, and depending on the severity of the outbreak these are estimated at US$ 311.2 billion (at 15% attack rate), and at US$ 711.2 billion (at a 35% attack rate) on an annual basis alone. This is consistent with the approach taken in much of the literature on indirect impacts, where the animal health and human pandemic scenarios of HPAI have been looked at separately (e.g. A43, A90, A210, A261). There is also wide consensus that, the further we move towards spill-over and wider society impacts, the more the picture becomes uncertain and heavily dependent on the underlying assumptions. It should be noted that these costs are the minimum expected outcome, as they exclude certain types of indirect impacts for which it has not been possible to provide estimates on a global scale. Such impacts include ripple effects on upstream/downstream industries (raw material suppliers, catering and distribution, wholesale markets, employment in the sector etc.), spill-over effects (e.g. on the services industry) and other wider society costs (e.g. environmental effects). Where available, some evidence of these effects on an ad hoc basis has been provided in section 4.3.3, and this suggests that such costs can be fairly substantial. For example, it is estimated that the European poultry feed industry following the AI crisis has seen up to 40% reductions in demand for poultry feed in EU countries (Table 9). In this context, the estimates of total indirect impact provided here should be considered as the minimum potential outcome. Civic Consulting • Agra CEAS Consulting 151
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