Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
Figure 4.4
Trend in average sea surface temperature anomaly in Europe's seas
SST anomaly (°C)
0.4
0.2
0.0
– 0.2
– 0.4
– 0.6
– 0.8
– 1.0
– 1.2
1865
1875
1885
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Global ocean North Sea Baltic Sea Mediterranean Sea North Atlantic Black Sea
Note:
Source:
This figure shows time series of average sea surface temperature (°C), smoothed over 11 years, and expressed as anomalies with
reference to the average temperature between 1993 and 2012, of the global ocean and of each of Europe's seas.
SST datasets from the CMEMS (Mediterranean Sea) and HADISST1 (global and all other regional seas).
All European seas have warmed considerably since
1870, and the warming has been particularly rapid
since the late 1970s (Figure 4.4). The multi-decadal
rate of SST rise during the satellite era (1979–2015)
has been between 0.21 °C per decade in the North
Atlantic and 0.40 °C per decade in the Baltic Sea.
Projections
It is very likely that globally averaged ocean
temperatures at the surface and for different ocean
depths will further increase in the near-term and
beyond. Owing to the thermal inertia of the ocean,
global SST is projected to rise more slowly than
atmospheric temperature (Kirtman et al., 2013).
Quantitative SST projections are available only for some
regional seas in Europe (Macias et al., 2013; Chust
et al., 2014). For the Baltic Sea, the increase in summer
SST during the 21st century under medium to high
emissions scenarios is projected to be about 2 °C in the
southern parts and about 4 °C in the northern parts
(HELCOM, 2013). An increase in harmful algal blooms,
with increased risks to human health, ecosystems and
aquaculture, has been projected for the North Sea
and the Baltic Sea as a result of the projected warming
(Glibert et al., 2014).
114 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report