Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
Map 4.15
Trend in thermophilic species in bird and butterfly communities
-30°
-20°
-10°
0°
10°
20°
30°
40°
50°
60°
70°
Bird and butterfly
Community Temperature
Index (CTI)
Butterfly
Bird
60°
Relevant countries
50°
Outside coverage
50°
40°
40°
0 500 0° 1000 150010°
km
20°
30°
40°
Note:
The map shows the temporal trend of the Community Temperature Index (CTI) of birds and butterflies for each country. A temporal
increase in CTI directly reflects that the species assemblage of the site is increasingly composed of individuals belonging to species
dependent on higher temperatures. The height of each arrow is proportional to the temporal trend and its direction corresponds to the
sign of the slope (from south to north for positive slopes). The arrow is opaque if the trend is significant.
Source: Adapted from Devictor et al., 2012.
There is some evidence that climate change has already
played a role in the spread of alien animal species in
Europe (see Box 4.7).
Projections
The observed northwards and uphill movement of
many plant and animal species is projected to continue
in the current century. Threatened endemic species
with specific requirements of the ecotope or a small
distribution range will generally be at greatest risk,
in particular if they face migration barriers (Dirnböck
et al., 2011).
A modelling study comprising 150 high-mountain plant
species across the European Alps projects average
range size reductions of 44–50 % by the end of the
21st century (Dullinger et al., 2012). An assessment of
the impacts of climate change on 2 632 plant species
across all major European mountain ranges under four
future climate scenarios projected that habitat loss
by 2070–2100 will be greater for species distributed
at higher elevations (Engler et al., 2011). Depending
on the climate scenario, up to 36–55 % of Alpine plant
species, 31–51 % of sub-Alpine plant species and
19–46 % of montane plant species are projected to lose
more than 80 % of their suitable habitat. Nevertheless,
at the finer scale, microclimate heterogeneity may
enable species to persist under climate change in so
called micro-climatic refugia (Scherrer and Körner,
2011). A Europe-wide study of the stability of 856 plant
species under climate change indicated that the
mean stable area of species decreases significantly
in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland and warm
mixed forests (Alkemade et al., 2011). The rate of
climate change is expected to exceed the ability of
many plant species to migrate, especially as landscape
fragmentation may restrict movement (Meier et al.,
2012). A recent study has analysed the likely shifts in
distribution for 3 048 plants and animals in England.
Of those species, 640 (21 %) were classified as being at
high risk owing to the loss of substantial parts of their
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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