Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
Table 5.3
Demonstrable links between climatic variables and selected pathogens
Campylobacter Salmonella Listeria Vibrio Cryptosporidium Norovirus
Temperature ?
Extreme temperature ? ? ?
Temperature threshold ? ?
Precipitation ? ?
Precipitation pattern ( a ) ? ? ?
Extreme precipitation ? ?
Humidity ? ? ?
UV light ?
Seasonality ?
Salinity O O O O O
Floods ?
Drought ? ? O ?
Storms ? ? ? ? ?
Irrigation ( b ) ? ? O ?
Recreational activities ?
Shellfish production ?
Consumption habits
Note:
( a ) For example, seasonality of rain events.
( b ) Water.
= impact; O = no impact; ? = impact unknown.
Source: Semenza et al., 2012.
(Baker‐Austin et al., 2012). Increased numbers of
infections can be expected based on the effects of
increased temperatures under climate change scenarios.
Map 5.8 presents Vibrio risk maps for 2006 (left) and
2050 under elevated sea surface temperature (right).
The projected increase in risk is substantial, but the
absolute increase is projected to be modest owing to
low current incidence rates. More recent studies in this
region suggest that this warming trend has continued,
with the July 2014 heat wave experienced in Sweden
and Finland leading to an unprecedented number of
Vibrio wound infections reported in the region, many
at extremely high latitudes (e.g. > 65 N) (Baker-Austin
et al., 2016). Environmentally acquired Vibrio infections
in humans associated with particularly high sea surface
temperatures have also been reported along the North
Sea coast of Europe in recent years (Vezzulli et al., 2016).
Bacterial Vibrio blooms in coastal water can be
monitored on the E3 Geoportal developed by the
ECDC (ECDC, 2016). The tool uses daily updated
remotely sensed data to examine environmentally
suitable conditions for Vibrio species in coastal waters
internationally.
Cryptosporidium
Cryptosporidiosis is an acute diarrhoeal disease caused
by intracellular protozoan parasites, Cryptosporidium
species. Transmission is through the faecal–oral route
via contaminated water, soil or food products, and the
most commonly identified vehicles are contaminated
drinking water and contaminated recreational water.
For example, several days of heavy rain in June 2013
resulted in river flooding in eastern Germany, and
activities in the dried out floodplain led to infection
among children (Gertler et al., 2015). Heavy rainfall has
also been associated with the contamination of water
supplies and outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis (Aksoy
et al., 2007; Hoek et al., 2008), as the concentration
220 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report