Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks Figure 6.1 Projected European trends for key socio-economic factors for the five shared socio-economic pathways Million people Total population, west Million people Total population, east 700 150 600 130 500 110 400 90 300 70 200 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 50 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Percentage Old-aged population (≥ 65 years), west Percentage Old-aged population (≥ 65 years), east 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 10 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Percentage Urban population, west Percentage Urban population, east 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 60 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 USD 2005 PPP Wealth (GDP/capita), west USD 2005 PPP Wealth (GDP/capita), east 180 000 180 000 150 000 150 000 120 000 120 000 90 000 90 000 60 000 60 000 30 000 30 000 0 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 0 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 / Alternative model runs (available only for GDP) Note: Source: The division between western and eastern Europe was based on the region groupings of the IIASA SSP database (version 1.0). Western Europe comprises the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Eastern Europe comprises the following countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. Turkey was not included in the region 'east', as many of its current and projected socio-economic variables differ significantly from those of the countries included in the region 'east'. Instead, some key numbers for Turkey are provided in the text. Cuaresma, 2015; Dellink et al., 2015; Jiang and O'Neill, 2015; Samir and Lutz, 2015; Leimbach et al, 2015; data available from the IIASA SSP database (version 1.0). 270 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Multi-sectoral vulnerability and risks For eastern Europe, the variation across the SSPs is somewhat larger, and the proportion of older people by 2100 is projected to be between 29 % (SSP3) and 50 % (SSP1). The European Commission study agrees with the ageing development, owing to the dynamics between fertility, life expectancy and migration. The EU‐28 old-aged population (65 years and older) is projected to rise from 18 % in 2013 to 28 % in 2060, while the group of people aged 80 years and older is projected to become as numerous as the population aged 0–14 years (both groups projected to be around 12 % of the total population in 2060). Levels of urbanisation are currently at 77 % in western and 62 % in eastern Europe, and continuous increases are projected for both regions and across all SSPs. Like for the ageing trend, the variation in urbanisation across SSPs is smaller for western Europe, where urbanisation might reach a level of 94 to 96 % in 2100, while urbanisation in eastern Europe depends more on the SSP (ranging from only 71 % for SSP3 to 95 % for SSP5 in 2100). A range very similar to that of eastern Europe is projected for Turkey. Projections of economic development are available from three different models (see Figure 6.1), and similar trends are projected for western and eastern Europe across the five SSPs. All SSPs assume a steady growth in wealth (measured as GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power) and a significant reduction in the current gap in GDP per capita between western and eastern Europe. SSP3 assumes the slowest growth throughout the century, whereas SSP5 at the other extreme assumes the strongest increase in wealth, where GDP per capita increases by factors of five (western Europe) and seven (eastern Europe) throughout the 21st century. For Turkey, most scenarios project a similar trend as for eastern Europe, with a significant growth in wealth that converges towards the wealth levels in western Europe. In the European Commission study of the EU‐28, the annual average GDP growth rate is projected to remain stable at moderate levels of 1.1 to 1.5 % up to 2060. Scenarios of adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is defined in the IPCC AR5 as 'the ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences' of climate change (IPCC, 2014, Annex II: Glossary). Some scholars further distinguish between proactive and reactive forms of capacity to adjust, and refer to these two forms as adaptive capacity and coping capacity, respectively (Tinch et al., 2015). Regardless of this distinction, the principal idea is to combine the various socio-economic factors that determine the extent to which a sector, society or region is able to deal with the consequences of climate change into an aggregated estimate of overall generic capacity. Indicator-based approaches are often employed to derive quantitative estimates (for their pros and cons, see Section 1.4). One of the first studies including scenarios on the potential future development of adaptive capacity across European regions used a composite indicator of generic adaptive capacity based on six determining factors: 'equity', 'knowledge', 'technology', 'infrastructure', flexibility' and 'economic power' (the ATEAM ( 115 ) project) (Acosta et al., 2013). Its spatial coverage was limited to 15 European countries. Recent work from the CLIMSAVE project has supplemented the ATEAM approach by constructing a generic indicator of coping capacity at the pan‐European scale based on four capitals: 'human capital', 'social capital', 'manufactured capital' and 'financial capital' (Dunford et al., 2015; Tinch et al., 2015). Each capital is represented by two indicators (e.g. 'life expectancy' and 'tertiary education' as proxies for estimating human capital). The results for the current situation show that the highest coping capacities are in north-western Europe and Switzerland, while many regions in eastern and southern Europe show low or very low coping capacity (see Map 6.1). The CLIMSAVE coping capacity indicator (based on the four capitals, see previous paragraph) has also been projected into the future, based on four socioeconomic scenarios (see Table 6.1). For each of the four scenarios, the direction and magnitude of change for the four capitals of the coping capacity indicator were quantified, together with stakeholders. The results from this exercise show that overall coping capacity is assumed to either improve or deteriorate substantially towards the 2020s and even further towards the 2050s, depending on the scenario. However, the currently prevailing spatial distribution across Europe of a higher capacity in central and north-western Europe and a lower capacity in southern and in particular in (some of) eastern Europe is projected to prevail across all scenarios (see Map 6.1). These general trends and patterns do not give information about particular threats and specific local contexts, and should therefore be used in conjunction with hazard-, sector- and location-specific information. ( 115 ) ATEAM: 'Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling'. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 271
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Strengthening the knowledge base
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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European Environment Agency Climate
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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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