Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
proportion of heat‐related admissions for respiratory
conditions expected to approximately triple in this
region over this time period (Aström et al., 2013).
The PESETA study estimated that cold-related mortality
would decrease by between 60 000 and 250 000 deaths
per year by the 2080s, which is about the same
magnitude as the projected increase in heat-related
mortality (Ciscar et al., 2011). The PESETA II study no
longer considers a potential reduction in cold-related
mortality in its climate impact estimates (Paci, 2014).
The choice not to include cold spells reflects recent
evidence that does not suggest a significant shift in
the balance of deaths between winters and summers
because of lower cold-related mortality (Aström et al.,
2013; Ebi and Mills, 2013; Kinney et al., 2015). However,
the risk from (moderate) cold is expected to continue
to account for most of the temperature-related risk
throughout this century (Vardoulakis et al., 2014;
Arbuthnott et al., 2016).
210 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report