Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Changes in the climate system
3.2.2 Global and European temperature
Key messages
• According to three different observational records of global average annual near-surface (land and ocean) temperature,
the last decade (2006–2015) was 0.83 to 0.89 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average, which makes it the warmest
decade on record. Of the 16 warmest years on record, 15 have occurred since 2000. The year 2015 was the warmest on
record, around 1 °C warmer than the pre-industrial level, followed by 2014.
• The average annual temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2006–2015) was around 1.5 °C above the
pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Moreover, 2014 and 2015 were jointly the warmest
years in Europe since instrumental records began.
• Climate models project further increases in global average temperature over the 21st century (for the period 2081–2100
relative to 1986–2005) of between 0.3 and 1.7 °C for the lowest emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and between 2.6 and 4.8 °C
for the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5).
• All UNFCCC member countries have agreed on the long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature
to well below 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels and have agreed to aim to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. For the three
highest of the four RCPs, global average temperature increase is projected to exceed 2 °C compared with pre-industrial
levels by 2050.
• Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to increase by the end of this century (2071–2100 relative to
1971–2000) in the range of 1 to 4.5 °C under RCP4.5 and 2.5 to 5.5 °C under RCP8.5, which is more than the projected
global average increase. The strongest warming is projected across north-eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter and
southern Europe in summer.
Relevance
This indicator shows absolute changes in average
annual and decadal near-surface temperature for
the globe and for a region covering Europe ( 41 ).
Near‐surface air temperature gives one of the
clearest and most consistent signals of global and
regional climate change. It has been measured for
many decades or even centuries in some locations.
Observational networks across the globe, and
especially in Europe, provide regular monitoring of
temperature using standardised measurements, quality
control and homogeneity procedures.
Global mean surface temperature is specifically
mentioned as a proxy for the magnitude of global
climate change in Article 2 of the UNFCCC (UN, 1992),
and the political discussion on global climate policy
often focuses on the most appropriate value for
constraining its increase. The agreement adopted at the
UNFCCC COP21 in Paris in December 2015 sets out a
global action plan to limit the increase in global average
temperature to well below 2 °C, with the aim to limit
the increase to 1.5 °C, compared with pre-industrial
levels (see Chapter 2 for further details).
Changes in air temperature also influence other
components of the climate system, such as sea level
and the intensity and frequency of floods and droughts.
Furthermore, temperature has a direct impact on many
natural and managed systems, such as biota and crop
productivity, and on human health and well-being.
( 41 ) In the context of this section, Europe is defined as the area between 35 and 70 ° North and – 25 and 45 ° East.
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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