Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
4.2 Coastal zones
Key messages
• Mean and extreme sea level have increased globally and along most coasts in Europe. Global mean sea level in 2015
was the highest yearly average over the record. There is increasing evidence of an acceleration in the rate of global
mean sea level rise during recent decades.
• The global mean sea level rise in the 21st century is very likely to be greater than that of the 20th century. Several recent
model-based studies and expert assessments have suggested an upper bound for the global mean sea level rise in the
21st century in the range of 1.5–2.0 m.
• Sea level rise will continue for many centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions and temperature are stabilised. The
main uncertainty for multi-century sea level rise is how fast the large ice sheets will disintegrate. Individual studies have
suggested that the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet could contribute up to 15 m to sea level rise by 2500 under a high
emissions scenario, but these projections are associated with very large uncertainties.
• Projected increases in extreme high coastal water levels in Europe are likely to mostly be the result of increases in local
relative mean sea level in most locations. However, recent studies suggest that increases in storm activity can also play a
substantial role, in particular along the northern European coastline.
• Projected sea level rise, possible changes in the frequency and intensity of storm surges, and the resulting coastal erosion
are expected to cause significant ecological damage, economic loss and other societal problems along low-lying coastal
areas across Europe unless additional adaptation measures are implemented.
4.2.1 Overview
Relevance
Coastal zones in Europe are centres of population
and economic activity, and they are home to diverse
ecosystems, in particular wetland and littoral
ecosystems. Some low-lying coastal regions, in
particular on islands, are important biodiversity
hotspots (Bellard et al., 2013, 2014). Projected climate
change, including sea level rise and associated
changes in the frequency and/or intensity of storm
surges and erosion, threatens human and natural
systems along continental coasts and on islands in
various ways.
The management of coastal zones needs to consider
the multiple functions of many coastal areas, and
this is increasingly occurring through integrated
coastal zone management. Adaptation policies also
need to consider the full range of adaptation options,
including measures such as dike building, beach
nourishment, rehabilitation of coastal ecosystems,
spatial planning, integrated coastal zone management,
and elaboration and distribution of flood hazard and
flood risk maps for costal zones according to the EU
Floods Directive (EC, 2007).
Policy context
Building on the existing EU policy on integrated
coastal zone management (confirmed by EU, 2014b)
and its gradual uptake by Member States, the new
initiatives for maritime spatial planning (launched by
the EU Integrated Maritime Policy) and coastal and
marine issues of climate change adaptation (part
of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change,
EC, 2013) have expanded the horizontal policy
platform, and offer new opportunities for integrated
spatial management and adaptation of Europe's
coastlines.
In July 2014, the European Parliament and the Council
adopted legislation to create a common framework
for maritime spatial planning in Europe (EU, 2014a).
This directive established a framework for 'maritime
spatial planning' (public policy that deals exclusively
with managing maritime space but not land space)
and provided new guidance for integrated coastal
management. The directive clearly presents the need
for an integrated planning and management approach
to tackle the multiple pressures on coastal resources.
Specifically, while clearly leaving terrestrial spatial
planning along the coast up to individual Member
States, it addresses land–sea interactions as part of
122 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report