Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Changes in the climate system Figure 3.1 The Earth's energy balance and the drivers of climate change Incoming shortwave radiation (SWR) Natural fluctuations in solar output SWR SWR reflected by the atmosphere Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) SWR absorbed by the atmosphere Aerosols Aerosol/cloud Interactions Clouds SWR, LWR Ozone SWR, LWR Chemical reactions SWR Chemical reactions Greenhouse gases and large aerosols LWR SWR absorbed by the surface Latent heat flux SWR reflected by the surface Sensible heat flux Back longwave radiation (LWR) LWR emitted from surface Emission of gases and aerosols Ocean color Wave height Ice/snow cover Surface albedo changes SWR Vegetation changes Note: Source: The radiative balance between incoming SWR and outgoing LWR is influenced by global climate 'drivers'. Natural fluctuations in solar output (solar cycles) can cause changes in the energy balance (through fluctuations in the amount of incoming SWR). Human activity results in the emission of gases and aerosols, which modifies the amount of outgoing LWR. Surface albedo (reflection coefficient) is changed by changes in vegetation or land surface properties, snow or ice cover, and ocean colour. These changes are driven by natural seasonal and diurnal changes (e.g. snow cover), as well as human influence. Adapted from IPCC, 2013a (Figure 1.1). @ 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Reproduced with permission. 3.1.2 Drivers of climate change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. by using statistical tests) and that persists for an extended period, typically for at least a few decades or longer (IPCC, 2013a). Climate change can be caused by natural external forcings (e.g. modulations of the solar cycles and volcanic activity) and by anthropogenic forcings (e.g. changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use). The main way through which humans are affecting the climate is by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This is a result of emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels (for electricity production, transport, industry, commercial and residential activities), deforestation, agricultural practices, and land-use, and forest management practices. The current average annual concentration of CO 2 , the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, is close to 400 parts per million (ppm), which is the highest level it has been over at least the last 800 000 years and about 40 % higher than the levels in the pre-industrial period of the mid-18th century (Figure 3.2). Since the start of the industrial era at the beginning of the 19th century, the overall effect of human activities on climate has greatly exceeded the effects on climate due to known changes in natural processes (e.g. changes in solar SWR) on comparable time scales. In addition to long-term climate change, the climate is varying as a result of natural internal processes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). 62 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Changes in the climate system Figure 3.2 Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations for the last 800 000 years and since 1959 CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere in the last 800 000 years Parts per million (ppm) of CO 2 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 Parts per million (ppm) of CO 2 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere since 1959 100 50 0 – 800 000 – 700 000 – 600 000 – 500 000 – 400 000 – 300 000 – 200 000 EPICA Dome C and Vostok Station, Antarctica Law Dome, Antarctica (75-year smoothed) Siple Station, Antarctica Mauna Loa, Hawaii – 100 000 0 Year Barrow, Alaska 100 50 Cape Matatula, American Samoa 0 South Pole, Antarctica Cape Grim, Australia 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Lampedusa Island, Italy Shetland Islands, Scotland Note: The CO 2 concentration until 1955 is estimated from ice-core or deep-sea sediment data. Concentrations from 1959 are obtained from instrumental measurements from eight different measurement stations. Source: Luthi et al., 2008; US EPA, 2015. 3.1.3 Observed climate change and its attribution to specific causes Since the 1850s, almost the entire land and sea surface has warmed, although not uniformly, as land areas show more warming than oceans. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2015 was the warmest year on record, which 'broke all previous records by a strikingly wide margin' (WMO, 2016). The total increase in global average land and ocean near-surface temperature in 2015 was around 1 °C compared with the pre-industrial period (see Section 3.2.2 for details). Increased temperatures have led to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers and snow cover, which are all declining rapidly (see Section 3.3 for details). Observations also show increases in ocean heat content in the deeper ocean (i.e. between 700 and 2 000 m and below 3 000 m) and increases in sea level (see Sections 4.1 and 4.2 for details). Changes in global precipitation since 1900 display both positive and negative trends, but there are many areas that lack robust long-term measurements (IPCC, 2013a). In Europe, 2014 and 2015 were the warmest years on record (EURO4M, 2016) (see Section 3.2.2). Furthermore, reconstructions show that summer temperatures in Europe in recent decades are the warmest for at least 2 000 years, and that they lie significantly outside the range of natural variability (Luterbacher et al., 2016). Several independent analyses have concluded that, in relation to the 2014 Europe temperature record, 98 % of the temperature increase can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which made this record 35–80 times more likely (EURO4M, 2015; Kam et al., 2015). Observations of climate variables are made from measurements taken in situ (land and sea surface, atmosphere and deep ocean), as well as remote measurements made by satellites, lidars and radars. Global-scale observations date back to the mid‐19th century, with independent, comprehensive and sustained datasets available since the 1950s. Globally and within Europe, some regions have shorter data records than others and, even within Europe, not all data from weather stations are shared freely (Map 3.1). As a result, there are large data gaps, even in interpolated datasets (Donat et al., 2013; Zwiers et al., 2013). In regions where many stations with long records are available to all users, Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 63
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
Page 14 and 15: Executive summary Executive summary
Page 16 and 17: Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
Page 18 and 19: Executive summary EU climate policy
Page 20 and 21: Executive summary dispersal of inva
Page 22 and 23: Executive summary Human health The
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Page 28 and 29: Executive summary precipitation, th
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Page 40 and 41: Introduction collaboration between
Page 42 and 43: Introduction The primary characteri
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Page 50 and 51: Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
Page 52 and 53: Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
Page 54 and 55: Policy context In addition, the 203
Page 56 and 57: Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Strengthening the knowledge base 7
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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