Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
Map 4.18
Current state, past trend and projections for forest fire danger
-30° -20° -10° 0°
1981–2010 -30° -20° (average) -10° 0°
10°
10°
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
50°
50°
60°
60°
70°
70°
-30° -20°
2071–2100
-30° -20°
-10°
-10°
0°
0°
10°
10°
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
50°
50°
60°
60°
70°
70°
60°
60°
50°
50°
50°
50°
40°
40°
40°
40°
0°
0°
10°
10°
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
0°
0°
10°
10°
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
Average forest fire danger (1981–2010)
Projected forest fire danger (2071–2100)
Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR)
0 to 1
1 to 2
2 to 3
3 to 4
4 to 5
5 to 6
6 to 7
7 to 10
10 to 15
> 15
No data
Outside
coverage
-30° -20° -10° 0°
1981–2010 -30° -20° (trend) -10° 0°
10°
10°
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
50°
50°
60°
60°
70°
70°
-30° -20° -10° 0° 10°
2071–2100 -30° -20° vs. -10° 1961–1990 0° 10°
20°
20°
30°
30°
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
© European Union 2016,
source: Joint Research Centre
40°
40°
50°
50°
60°
60°
70°
70°
60°
60°
50° 50°
50° 50°
50°
50°
40° 40°
40° 40°
40°
40°
0°
0°
10°
10°
20°
20°
30°
30°
40°
40°
0° 0°
10° 10°
20° 20°
30° 30°
40° 40°
Observed trend in forest fire danger (1981–2010)
Projected change in forest fire danger (2071–2100 vs. 1961–1990)
Note:
% change in SSR per year
< – 1.0
– 1.0 to – 0.5
– 0.5 to 0.0
0.0 to 0.5
0.5 to 1.0
1.0 to 1.5
1.5 to 2.0
> 2.0
Statistical significance
of fire danger trend
Highly significant
(p > 0.01)
Significant
(p < 0.05)
No data
Outside
coverage
Fire danger is expressed using the SSR. Daily severity values can be averaged over the fire season using the SSR index, which allows for
objective comparison of fire danger from year to year and from region to region. The coarse scale of the map does not allow specific
conditions of given sites to be accounted for, as, for example, in the Alpine region, where the complex topography may strongly affect
local fire danger.
Source: Camia, 2012 (personal communication), based on Camia et al., 2008.
% change in SSR
0 to 50
.50 to 100
100 to 150
150 to 200
> 200
0 500 1 000 1 500 km
© European Union 2016,
source: Joint Research Centre
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
179