Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on environmental systems
The Natura 2000 network in Europe, designated under
the Habitats Directive and the Birds Directive, is — by
the number of sites — the most extensive network
of conservation areas worldwide and, as such, the
most important instrument for maintaining biological
diversity within the European Union. The principle
objective of the EU Habitats Directive (i.e. maintaining
certain species and habitats) is static and does not
recognise dynamic influences of environmental
changes such as climate change. Nevertheless,
Natura 2000 includes a lot of potential and chances
to maintain biodiversity even under conditions of a
changing climate (Ellwanger et al., 2012).
Owing to the high rate of change in climatic conditions
and the predicted wide range of changes in species
distribution and composition, the extent to which
Natura 2000 might be able to fulfil its function of
maintaining biological diversity also in the future has to
be discussed, as well as the measures that should be
taken to enhance its resilience. Some recent research
shows that the Natura 2000 network is, in principle,
able to cope with climate change and even to buffer
some of the effects. However, strengthening the fitness
of habitats and species, adaptive management, actions
to enhance coherence and better awareness of climate
change effects will be needed to support the crucial
role of Natura 2000 under climate change conditions.
Because of the complex and dynamic nature of
habitats, particularly when considering the impacts of
climate change, modelling the future distribution of
habitat types should be based not exclusively on their
current definitions and mapped distributions, but also
on their constituent elements, and in particular their
characteristic plant species.
An assessment of the effectiveness of sets of
protected areas in conserving European plant and
terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change
estimates that, by 2080, 58 ± 3 % of the species would
lose suitable climate niches in protected areas. In
Natura 2000 areas, the losses were even higher, at
63 ± 2 %. The difference between protected areas
and Natura 2000 sites is partly related to topography.
While most protected areas are designated in the
mountains or rugged environments, Natura 2000
also prioritises farmlands, which are often located in
lower and flatter lands. Because proportional range
losses arising from climate change are usually more
pronounced in flatlands than in rugged terrains,
Natura 2000 is more vulnerable to climate change
(Araújo et al., 2011).
Several studies show that climate change should
be considered in the selection and management of
conservation areas (Filz et al., 2013; Virkkala et al.,
2013; Watson et al., 2013). The EU Invasive Species
Regulation also requires consideration of 'foreseeable'
climate change in the risk assessment of potential
invasive species (EU, 2014). Despite those threats,
existing protected areas play an important role in the
conservation of biodiversity under climate change,
Table 4.1
Habitats and species groups negatively affected by climate change in at least one EU Member
State
Habitat type
% of habitats
considered …
under
pressure
under
threat
Number of
habitats …
under pressure
or threat
Species group
% of species
considered …
under
pressure
under
threat
Number of
species …
under pressure
or threat
Coastal habitats 21 43 28 Amphibians 20 21 47
Dunes habitats 43 48 21 Arthropods 11 16 114
Freshwater habitats 11 30 18 Fish 11 16 105
Heath and scrub 9 9 11 Mammals 14 18 108
Sclerophyllous scrub 25 25 12 Molluscs 37 45 38
Grasslands 7 15 28 Reptiles 13 15 55
Bogs, mires and fens 25 75 12 Non-vascular plants 24 36 33
Rocky habitats 17 23 13 Vascular plants 10 16 352
Forests 6 30 63
All habitats 14 33 206 All species 13 18 852
Note:
The table gives the proportion of habitat types and species groups listed in the Habitats Directive for which at least one Member State
has identified climate change as a high-rank pressure on and/or threat of unfavourable trends in the area covered or across the natural
range as reported by the Member States for the 2007–2012 reporting period.
Source: ETC-BD, 2015.
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