Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
in health protection, and requires reconsideration of
public health priorities. The most effective responses
today, and while global warming stays below a 2 °C
increase compared with pre-industrial levels, are
likely to be strengthening of key functions such as
environmental management, surveillance and response
to safeguard health from natural disasters and changes
in infectious disease patterns, and a more proactive
approach to ensure that development decisions serve
the ultimate goal of improving human health. Both
climate-sensitive health risks and the health benefits of
cutting greenhouse gas emissions should be central to
any discussion on climate change (WHO, 2015). Many
mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change
are 'no-regret' options, which lead to direct reductions
in the burden of ill-health, enhance community
resilience, alleviate poverty and address global inequity
(Watts et al., 2015). For example, further improvement,
development and implementation of heat-wave
preparedness, planning and response in European
countries would lead to a reduction in heat-related
mortality, and a focus should be placed on developing
strong inter-sectorial coordination, effective early
warning and health system response mechanisms, and
surveillance and evaluation measures (Bittner et al.,
2014). Long-term planning, including urban planning
and housing, becomes even more relevant than
before. The recent Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk
Reduction 2015–2030 was adopted by representatives
from 187 UN Member States in March 2015 (UN, 2015)
with six priorities (see Section 2.1.2). Activities at
national and local levels, as well as global and regional
levels, were established for each of these priorities.
The current policy context is further set through
European Union policies and the pan-European
'Commitment to Act' on environment and health. In
March 2010, at the Fifth Ministerial Conference on
Environment and Health in Parma, Italy, ministers
of health and the environment of 53 European
Member States and the European Commission
declared their commitment to protecting health
and well‐being, natural resources and ecosystems
and to promoting health equity, health security and
healthy environments in a changing climate (WHO,
2010a, 2010b). This includes the promotion of climate
change mitigation and adaptation measures that
also improve human health. As a continuation of the
engagement, the European Environment and Health
Process will concentrate on activities in light of the
Paris climate agreement, and in preparation for the
Sixth Ministerial Conference on Environment and
Health in 2017. The European Commission adopted,
in April 2013, an EU strategy on adaptation to climate
change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member
States. The strategy aims to make Europe more
climate resilient. It focuses on promoting action by
Member States, climate-proofing action, and better
informed decision-making (EC, 2013) (see Section 2.3
for details). Furthermore, the Decision of the Council
and the EU Parliament on cross-border health
threats will help Member States to prepare for and
protect citizens against possible future pandemics
and serious cross‐border threats caused not only
by communicable diseases, but also by chemical,
biological or environmental events (EU, 2013).
Selection of indicators
The next section presents an overview of extreme
weather events and health, which is not presented in
indicator format and therefore is not merged with the
more specific indicators on this topic. After the section
on extreme weather events and health, the following
indicators on key climate-sensitive health risks in
Europe are presented:
• floods and health (addressing both coastal and river
floods);
• extreme temperatures and health (focussing on
extreme high temperatures);
• vector-borne diseases;
• water- and food-borne diseases.
Climate change can also affect ground-level ozone
concentrations, which are a threat to human health.
However, the projected increase in summertime ozone
concentrations in Europe due to future warming is
small compared with the background level and the
effect of expected reductions in ozone precursors
(EEA, 2015).
Data needs and uncertainty
The attribution of health effects to climate change
is difficult owing to the complexity of interactions
and the potential modifying effects of a range of
other factors (such as land-use changes, public
health preparedness and socio-economic conditions)
(Wardekker et al., 2012). Criteria for defining a
climate‐sensitive health impact are not always well
identified, and their detection sometimes relies
on complex observational or prospective studies,
applying a mix of epidemiological, statistical and/
or modelling methodologies. Furthermore, these
criteria, as well as the completeness and reliability
of observations, may differ between regions and/
or institutions, and they may change over time. Data
availability and quality are crucial in climate change
and human health assessments, both for longer term
changes in climate-sensitive health outcomes and for
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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