Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Changes in the climate system
more intense for RCP8.5 than for RCP2.6. The warming
is particularly strong at high latitudes. Increasing
precipitation is projected for high-latitude regions and
the equatorial Pacific, whereas decreasing precipitation
is projected for many sub-tropical and mid-latitude
regions, including the Mediterranean.
GCMs provide guidance on the range of possible futures
for each scenario. For example, Figure 3.4 depicts key
aspects of future climate change in Europe for two
future periods and two scenarios. Key uncertainties
(see Section 1.4 for further explanation) are depicted by
showing the results for two RCP scenarios (RCP2.6 and
RCP8.5) and for several GCMs separately.
All models and both scenarios show that Europe will
become warmer in the 21st century. For the 2040s,
both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) show similar
changes in precipitation, and the differences are
mainly the result of model uncertainties. However,
in the 2080s, the difference between both scenarios
increases. Almost all climate models agree that
northern Europe (top of Figure 3.4) will become wetter,
in particular under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under the
RCP8.5 scenario, all models agree that southern Europe
will become drier in the 2080s (bottom of Figure 3.4).
However, under the RCP2.6 scenario, the GCMs do
not agree on the direction of changes in both future
periods.
Map 3.2
Projected changes in global average surface temperature and precipitation
RCP2.6
RCP2.6
RCP8.5
RCP8.5
Changes in global average surface temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 under RCP2.6
(upper panel) and RCP8.5 (lower panel)
ºC
–2 – 1.5 – 1 – 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 7 9 11
%
– 50 – 40 – 30 – 20 – 10 0 10 20
30 40 50
Regions where the multi–model mean signal is less than 1 standard deviation of internal variability
Regions where the multi–model mean signal is greater than 2 standard deviations of internal variability and where 90 % of models
agree on the sign of change
Note:
Source:
Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean signal is less than one standard deviation of internal variability. Stippling
indicates regions where the multi-model mean signal is greater than two standard deviations of internal variability and where 90 % of
models agree on the direction of change.
IPCC, 2013b (Figure SPM.8.a/b). © 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Reproduced with permission.
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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