Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
conditions (including expected climatic change) and
also involves increased global transfer of nutrients,
which can have potentially damaging consequences
for feed-producing countries (soil impoverishment and
erosion) and feed-importing countries (pollution and
eutrophication of natural water courses) (Leip et al.,
2015). At the same time as (and interacting with) these
changes in production, consumers are increasingly
putting pressure on producers to produce more in a
sustainable manner (Broom et al., 2013).
Alongside the economic changes described above,
climate change is already having an impact on livestock
production systems. In northern countries, the length
of the growing season is increasing, leading to changes
in grazing and cutting regimes in grassland-based
systems (Höglind et al., 2013). These changes can
bring about management challenges, such as those
described in the North Savo region of Finland, where
one of the challenges is increasing wet conditions
that, coupled with use of heavier machinery, lead to
increasing soil compaction and declining soil fertility
(Box 5.1). Climate change is also beginning to have an
impact on animal health. The number of days in which
the temperature–humidity index exceeds the critical
maximum threshold is increasing in many parts of
Europe (Gauly et al., 2013; Dunn et al., 2014). Exposure
to a high temperature–humidity index can effect milk
production and quality, mortality, reproductive health
and disease susceptibility, especially in intensive dairy
cattle (Vitali et al., 2009). Some livestock pathogens and
pathogen vectors appear to be expanding their ranges
and abundance as a result of climate change, such
as the spread of bluetongue in northern Europe. For
other pathogens, climate change is only one of a range
of variables affecting their occurrence, and may not
always have a negative effect (Perry et al., 2013).
All these changes take place in the context of a
changing policy landscape. Support for agriculture
under the EU CAP is being de-coupled from production.
Furthermore, under the second pillar of the EU CAP,
there is support for improving the way that livestock
systems conserve and enhance the provision of societal
goods, such as biodiversity and ecosystem services,
which are often undervalued by the market.
Projections
So far, the modelling of future changes in livestock
production under climate change at the European scale
includes only indirect impacts on livestock systems, via
changes in crop production and prices. Most of these
studies have shown that climate change impacts are
less important than socio-economic factors in affecting
livestock production in Europe (Audsley et al., 2006;
Leclère et al., 2013). As increased CO 2 and warmer
conditions lead to increases in the productivity of
crops in Europe, livestock systems are expected to rely
more on high-protein feeds and less on grasslands.
Such trends are also driven by climate change, namely
reductions in global crop yields and the subsequent
price increases (Frank et al., 2014). Increases in crop
demand may be driven more by biofuel production and
animal feed than by human consumption.
The modelling predictions described above do not
take account of changes in grassland productivity
resulting from climate-change related conditions,
although it has been suggested that this might only be
a marginal factor (Leclère et al., 2013). A model-based
study estimated a 3 % increase in annual grassland
production between 1961 and 2010, but the model
used does not yet consider changes in forage quality
resulting from climate change (Chang et al., 2015).
Livestock systems are potentially affected by a much
wider range of variables, beyond those affecting feed
sources. These include (1) the species and genetic
characteristics of the livestock being farmed, (2) the
health and welfare status of animals, (3) management
at individual and herd levels (including health
interventions and diet choices) and (4) longer term
strategic decisions about the type of farming system
and its adaptation to local conditions. Such choices
are mediated by socio-economic factors working at
multiple and interacting scales, and from within and
beyond Europe. There have been early attempts to
model the impacts of heat stress on dairy cattle in a
regional study of Austrian livestock production under
climate change, but models cannot yet capture the
variety of climate change impacts involved (Schönhart
and Nadeem, 2015). As a result, there is much
uncertainty about the response of livestock production
to climate change.
Table 5.4 demonstrates that climate change presents
very different challenges depending on whether it is
assumed that there is a continuation in the production
trends considered above (where producers 'push'
for the intensification of livestock systems under
continued globalisation, and with a switch in land use
towards croplands and the abandonment of marginal
grazing) or if a 'pull' model is considered, with growing
consumer demands and policy support for production
based on a wider definition of sustainability (including
biodiversity and ecosystem services) (Bindi and Olesen,
2011; Broom et al., 2013).
Different societal choices (social, political and
economic) are likely to create systems that may face
very different challenges under climate change. While
the 'push' model of livestock production systems may
continue to drive intensification in some sectors and
regions, others might be 'pulled' in other directions by
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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