Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.4.5 Energy infrastructure
The vulnerabilities of energy production and
transmission infrastructure to climate change are
becoming increasingly relevant owing to the increasing
dependence of societal activities on electricity, and to
the shift of the energy mix towards more vulnerable
technologies, such as wind power generation (Ligtvoet,
et al., 2015). Moreover, the increasing interconnection
between national energy networks in the EU,
particularly electricity transmission lines, enhances
the interdependency across countries and, therefore,
the risk of the vulnerability of energy infrastructures
spreading across national borders (Vonk et al., 2015) (see
also Section 6.4).
There is a dearth of publications on the impact of climate
change on the energy infrastructure in Europe. Pipelines
and electricity transmission lines are generally built with
a relatively high tolerance to extreme climatic conditions,
which adds some safety margin for future climate
change. They are therefore expected to withstand the
threats posed by climate change better than other
infrastructures. This, however, does not exclude the
need to adapt the design and operating conditions of
energy infrastructures used in currently mild climates,
by drawing upon the lessons learnt in areas where
conditions are usually more severe (Kovats et al., 2014).
Table 5.6 summarises the climate change impacts on
energy transmission and distribution infrastructure in
Europe (EC, 2013). The table highlights the risks that
extreme weather events could pose to infrastructures,
such as reduced technical efficiency under higher
temperatures. Note that this information is framed
qualitatively as the risks possibly faced by energy
infrastructure in the future. However, a comprehensive
quantitative assessment of such impacts for EU energy
infrastructure is not available.
The stress test of European nuclear power plants in
the aftermath of the Fukushima accident concluded
that further improvements can be made to prepare
for extreme weather events (EC, 2011; ENSREG, 2012).
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has
developed guidelines that represent good practice
to increase robustness against natural hazards and
extreme events, which are expected to be implemented
in a number of European countries as a result of the
stress test (IAEA, 2011). Renewable electricity generators
are most susceptible to potential changes in extreme
storm gusts, which might damage wind turbines.
A recent assessment of the possible vulnerabilities of
coastal energy infrastructures in Europe, comprising oil,
gas or liquefied natural gas tanker terminals and nuclear
power stations, highlights the risks posed by sea level
rise. There are 158 major terminals in the European
coastal zone and 71 operating nuclear reactors on the
coast, with more currently planned. Planned adaptation
and a high level of awareness of sea level rise threats
could mitigate, to some extent, the risks to coastal
energy infrastructure in north-western Europe (Brown
et al., 2014).
Table 5.6
Climate-related vulnerabilities of energy infrastructures in the EU
Type Climatic pressures Risks Time frame of expected
impacts
Primarily
electrical
transmission
and distribution
networks
Primarily
transmission
networks (oil
and gas)
Primarily
storage and
distribution
Extremely high
temperatures
Snow, icing, storms
Heavy precipitation
Melting permafrost
Higher
temperatures
Storms in
connection with
high tides and sea
level rise
Decreased network capacity Medium-negative (2025)
to extreme-negative
(2080)
Increased chance of damage to energy
networks and, thus, blackout
Mass movements (landslides, mud and
debris flows) causing damage
Tie-ins of gas pipelines in permafrost
ground cause technical problems
(this is related only to Arctic supply
pipelines and not to the east–west
gas pipelines, as the latter are not
grounded in permafrost)
Reduced throughput capacity in gas
pipelines
Threats to refineries and coastal
pipelines owing to sea level rise, high
tide and storms
Medium-negative to
low‐positive (2050)
Time frame, magnitudes
and frequencies
uncertain
Low for 2025 and
gradually increasing
Low for 2025 and
gradually increasing
Low for 2025 and
gradually increasing
Regions mainly
affected
EU-wide
North-western
EU
Mountainous
regions in
particular
Arctic Eurasia
EU-wide
EU-wide
Source: EC, 2013 (Annex 2, p. 34).
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