Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on society 5.6.2 Summer and beach tourism A growing number of studies have assessed the likely impacts of climate change on summer and beach tourism in Europe. Some of these studies have used the tourism climate index (TCI), which is a composite measure for systematically assessing the climatic elements that are most relevant to the quality of the tourism experience for the 'average' summer tourist (Amelung and Moreno, 2009, 2011; Ciscar et al., 2009; Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010; Nicholls and Amelung, 2015). The TCI uses a weighted aggregate of several climate variables (i.e. maximum and mean daily temperature, humidity, precipitation, sunshine and wind) to assess human comfort for general outdoor activities (Mieczkowski, 1985). The TCI has been criticised because of the intrinsic subjectivity of the weighting and the rating of the components of the index (de Freitas et al., 2008); however, it has been partly validated for the Mediterranean countries within the PESETA study (Amelung and Moreno, 2011). Map 5.21 compares the TCI for baseline and projected future climate conditions in Europe in all seasons. According to these maps, climate resources in the reference period are generally best in southern Europe (left column). Over the 21st century, climate change is projected to shift the latitudinal band of favourable climate northwards, thereby improving climate resources in northern and central Europe in most seasons (central column). Southern Europe's tourism suitability drops strikingly in the summer holiday months; this drop is partially compensated for by improvements in other seasons (right column). Further detailed analysis of the change in the number of acceptable, good and excellent days per month for eight European regions is available in the original study (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010). Several recent studies have used econometric approaches and economic modelling approaches to identify the economic impacts of climate change on tourism under different assumptions for adaptation (Barrios and Ibañez Rivas, 2013; Ciscar et al., 2014; Rosselló and Santana-Gallego, 2014; Perrels et al., 2015). Despite somewhat different approaches, all of the available studies come to broadly similar conclusions (Rosselló-Nadal, 2014). Conditions for beach tourism averaged across Europe are expected to improve, as mean temperatures will rise. The beach season will be prolonged, into spring and autumn, in southern regions. Competition between beach destinations in Europe will increase, as climate conditions at the Atlantic and northern European coasts improve, while summer temperatures in some Mediterranean destinations may become too hot in the summer holiday months, leading to a loss of overnight stays. However, the Mediterranean region is expected to remain by far the most popular beach destination (Perrels et al., 2015). In summary, domestic tourism and tourist arrivals at locations in northern and parts of continental Europe may be enhanced at the expense of southern locations, in particular after 2050 (Kovats et al., 2014). The economic impacts of these changes depend largely on whether tourists will predominantly adapt by changing their destination or by changing their timing of travel. In particular, a widespread holiday shift to shoulder seasons would result in reduced gains for northern destinations and lower losses for southern destinations (Ciscar et al., 2014). The European tourism industry is also highly sensitive to the economic situation in Europe and globally, as well as to demographic change. Furthermore, tourism may compete with agriculture or other sectors for land and water resources, which in turn may be affected by climate change. These interactions are increasingly studied at a regional and national level (in particular in Spain), but they are too complex for systematic inclusion in European-level assessments. Studies considering the direct impact on tourism, together with other climate change impacts, have identified potentially more severe, but also less predictable, impacts. 264 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on society Map 5.21 Projected changes in the tourism climatic index for the four seasons 1961–1990 2071–2100 Change Autumn (SON) Summer (JJA) Spring (MAM) Winter (DJF) 0 20 40 60 80 100 − 25 − 15 − 5 5 15 25 Note: Source: The figure shows the tourism climate index for four seasons in the present period (1961–1990, left) and under future climate change (2071–2100, middle), and the change between the present and future periods (right). Future climate conditions are based on the SRES A2 scenario and derived from the ensemble mean of five RCMs that participated in the PRUDENCE project. Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media. Reproduced with permission. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 265
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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European Environment Agency Climate
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